Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79dad466b258dd8877deb9e3455719d6272bf393038614f421fc5948a3b35ed7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $311,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $311,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 1c | 50,380$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.56 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 0c | 26,890$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.52 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 1c | 7,032$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 209 | 7.7%16 W · 193 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 1c | 6,998$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.93 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 5,953$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9e…e4a8backed Yes | 1c | 5,528$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…3832backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,519$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.47 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…ed4abacked Yes | 0c | 3,507$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,422$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 6c | 2,730$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb068…2e33backed Yes | 1c | 2,691$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 16c | 2,234$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 7c | 2,234$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.79 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 1c | 2,072$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 1c | 2,054$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,920$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 1,852$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.42 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,752$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.37 | 173 | 22.5%39 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 3c | 1,672$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 4c | 1,616$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 15c | 1,615$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,600$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.42 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…c997backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 3c | 1,300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 289 | 12.8%37 W · 252 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,159$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.47 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…9717backed Yes | 2c | 1,078$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…e781backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5632…748dbacked Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 5c | 999.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…e221backed Yes | 10c | 987.88$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.54 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5242…5a2cbacked Yes | 1c | 929.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f3…0a98backed Yes | 3c | 897.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 124 | 16.1%20 W · 104 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…393abacked Yes | 5c | 846.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac38…f21ebacked Yes | 8c | 813.32$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 6c | 786.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 12c | 765.05$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 12c | 729.98$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.14 | 296 | 10.5%31 W · 265 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 5c | 658.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 2c | 619.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…5490backed Yes | 5c | 608.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 5c | 600$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 15c | 599.6$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 5c | 546.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed4a…2dc9backed Yes | 10c | 508$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 12c | 439.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 4c | 437$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17aa…cb3dbacked Yes | 14c | 420.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf801…fdfbbacked Yes | 5c | 377.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699b…fb32backed Yes | 7c | 308.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes | 5c | 259.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x722d…1155backed Yes | 5c | 251$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x651f…8e87backed Yes | 6c | 238.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 5c | 215.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 15c | 203.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5609…33f4backed Yes | 15c | 201.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1de…85d9backed Yes | 8c | 200.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…d041backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd650…f6eebacked Yes | 8c | 183.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2636…8bcabacked Yes | 7c | 170.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…9739backed Yes | 12c | 162.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf61…2ed5backed Yes | 17c | 120.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes | 9c | 112.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe97d…622bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4709…fb48backed Yes | 12c | 90.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.