Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91cce84b1994be7d58c104b2836a66cd92c856581a9c30a67d1303108ffa95bc

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 10, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $370,684
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $254,831

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $370,684 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 220 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x699b…fb32backed Yes	2c	12,782$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.5	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	35c	10,825$3,803 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,803.44	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	9c	10,054$912 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$912.18	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdab4…5dbabacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No	72c	9,799$7,011 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,787.87	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2be3…688fbacked Yes	34c	9,431$3,172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,171.83	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	18c	8,952$1,597 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,596.87	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	11c	6,694$753 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$753.05	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	9c	5,970$554 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$553.57	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	19c	4,851$925 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$924.94	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	26c	4,120$1,065 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,064.82	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	13c	4,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	3c	3,409$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	288	12.8%37 W · 251 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	34c	3,342$1,130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,130.09	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	21c	3,260$672 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$672.44	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78bf…212fbacked Yes	31c	3,231$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac38…f21ebacked Yes	27c	2,570$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	-4.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	18c	2,508$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes	11c	2,500$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	25	48%12 W · 13 L	+9.2wins	+0.37per pick	11cpaid	+624.5%equal weight	70+0.18 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No	69c	2,426$1,670 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$756.46	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	16c	2,209$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.27	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	1c	2,150$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.7	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	2c	2,120$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.75	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	18c	2,100$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.61	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	10c	1,908$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.9	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	25c	1,903$481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480.72	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	12c	1,785$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.21	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes	12c	1,765$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.2	230	19.1%44 W · 186 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	71c	1,730$1,221 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$508.43	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes	29c	1,644$481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$481.08	128	10.9%14 W · 114 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	17c	1,568$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.68	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	45c	1,446$658 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$657.64	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	22c	1,434$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.99	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	35c	1,334$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$464.87	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	18c	1,289$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.04	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes	11c	1,260$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.86	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+2.8wins	+0.11per pick	12cpaid	+179.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes	8c	1,260$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.93	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+2.8wins	+0.09per pick	14cpaid	+140.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	24c	1,158$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.46	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ade…c43abacked Yes	43c	1,155$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes	4c	1,125$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	37	54.1%20 W · 17 L	+2.7wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	24c	1,078$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.8	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x031b…babcbacked Yes	15c	1,078$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.96	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	13c	1,049$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.45	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes	23c	1,000$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.47	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b87…a20abacked Yes	70c	1,000$695 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$695.2	29	24.1%7 W · 22 L	-4.7wins	-0.16per pick	40cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked No	70c	998.21$699 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$299.46	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	23c	930.64$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.72	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa942…0221backed Yes	27c	903.86$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	23c	895.54$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.33	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9007…70d7backed No	66c	873.64$573 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300.59	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.14per pick	49cpaid	+49.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes	48c	856.22$411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410.72	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-5.3wins	-0.09per pick	33cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed No	35c	841.5$299 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$542.88	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8de…1021backed Yes	3c	801.68$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.55	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.13per pick	27cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes	25c	791.93$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	61	19.7%12 W · 49 L	-6.8wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes	50c	722.38$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.51	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91ac…215dbacked Yes	16c	703.57$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.6	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No	76c	692.78$527 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.33	12	75%9 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	76cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes	30c	664.58$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	73c	656.33$479 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176.88	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes	45c	646.93$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.58	431	26.2%113 W · 318 L	+2.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	13c	631.32$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.17	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked No	69c	630.16$436 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$193.69	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes	36c	624$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.1	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	20c	611.08$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	281	11%31 W · 250 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked Yes	4c	600$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	246	72.8%179 W · 67 L	+15.5wins	+0.06per pick	66cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fe9…78cabacked Yes	46c	580$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c5f…a235backed Yes	23c	530.36$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.77	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	18c	501.35$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.64	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5632…748dbacked Yes	20c	500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1069…c029backed Yes	4c	500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes	26c	499.99$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfed7…5490backed Yes	21c	475.08$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.54	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2a…3832backed Yes	58c	456.45$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.42	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ff4…eb8ebacked Yes	47c	454.59$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215	64	31.3%20 W · 44 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc82f…fe06backed Yes	24c	413.78$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4340…0202backed Yes	7c	400.73$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.61	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	6cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes	8c	400$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	94	11.7%11 W · 83 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c92…f77abacked Yes	13c	398.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0f26…1f12backed Yes	75c	396.91$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.07	135	17%23 W · 112 L	-6.9wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	13c	396.88$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe863…e221backed Yes	13c	394.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	53	26.4%14 W · 39 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	+21%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	15c	387$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.51	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	23c	385.83$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.53	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	7c	378$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.46	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc17a…1db3backed Yes	26c	377.74$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x798f…6f10backed Yes	17c	364.89$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.71	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d7f…f6edbacked Yes	56c	359.34$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.42	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5822…0d28backed Yes	15c	346$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.52	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x304d…07f1backed No	78c	339.71$266 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.7	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5082…0159backed No	49c	339.66$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.53	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+105.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8498…d219backed Yes	15c	332.99$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.49	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x39ce…5183backed Yes	7c	326.89$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.91	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.23per pick	27cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	38c	319.95$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99ef…2dadbacked Yes	9c	319.89$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d21…d7cdbacked Yes	34c	308.56$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.53	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xafbb…7525backed Yes	20c	300.51$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	52	26.9%14 W · 38 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8667…8e0bbacked Yes	43c	300.05$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.34	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	25c	300$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	731	15.2%111 W · 620 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c5…0166backed Yes	43c	295.3$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.98	49	12.2%6 W · 43 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-71%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event