TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$167,809
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,199

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,809 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes0c58,000$153 inLost-$1535325.3%28 W · 504 L+1.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes0c18,809$19 inLost-$18.811833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5194…cd01backed Yes1c4,999$25 inLost-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes1c3,000$30 inLost-$3029610.5%31 W · 265 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e44…393abacked Yes1c1,921$20 inLost-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,735$14 inLost-$14.322,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes7c1,703$126 inLost-$125.682,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes2c1,117$25 inLost-$25.225045.2%26 W · 478 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes3c999.45$28 inLost-$28.081868.6%16 W · 170 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-76.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes3c921.54$28 inLost-$27.5312416.1%20 W · 104 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes11c841$92 inLost-$91.6365623.2%152 W · 504 L+1.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes2c815.3$15 inLost-$15.425198.3%43 W · 476 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes2c604.67$11 inLost-$1162412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes7c442.39$33 inLost-$33.06339.1%3 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-52.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes3c327.95$11 inLost-$10.5718531.4%58 W · 127 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-36%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes4c321$12 inLost-$12.154126.8%11 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes5c300$14 inLost-$13.682714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes5c295.06$15 inLost-$1542110%42 W · 379 L+1.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes9c230$21 inLost-$21.434017.1%58 W · 282 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes11c200$22 inLost-$2245911.3%52 W · 407 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes10c160$16 inLost-$16119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-78.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes8c135.26$11 inLost-$10.827445.9%34 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes12c100$12 inLost-$1245715.1%69 W · 388 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.