Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf580f2488f8e03a0b81b67c85ec1906cd75e4c375ad769e21b0e3335a6382b60

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 10, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $350,985
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $144,697

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $350,985 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7424…129ebacked Yes	0c	42,805$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	5c	40,504$2,198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,198.06	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	17,231$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.08	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x699b…fb32backed Yes	0c	10,077$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd25e…76e2backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa821…13b9backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	16c	8,068$1,326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,325.64	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	15c	5,074$784 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$784.28	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	15c	4,297$632 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$631.69	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2be3…688fbacked Yes	4c	3,679$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.07	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	20c	3,602$714 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$714.07	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	7c	3,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	15c	2,672$395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$394.75	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x509d…0f6ebacked Yes	26c	2,475$639 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$638.86	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	79c	2,462$1,936 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$525.98	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	23c	2,287$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520.43	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	19c	1,917$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	15c	1,876$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.81	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,624$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.84	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	12c	1,488$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.6	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ade…c43abacked Yes	31c	1,456$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$458	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac38…f21ebacked Yes	22c	1,392$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	-4.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	16c	1,362$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.48	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	12c	1,338$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.33	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	14c	1,328$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.89	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes	14c	1,251$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.28	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaba…23f5backed Yes	23c	1,172$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	65cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	15c	1,155$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.61	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	14c	1,125$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.08	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	18c	1,120$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.62	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f26…1f12backed Yes	27c	1,050$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.31	135	17%23 W · 112 L	-6.9wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	10c	1,050$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.97	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	11c	1,011$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.79	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes	15c	1,006$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.72	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5632…748dbacked Yes	11c	999.99$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes	17c	934.95$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.88	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2aa…0e03backed Yes	20c	814.99$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.5	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd099…fbc5backed Yes	13c	774.92$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.94	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+85.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe863…e221backed Yes	16c	724.08$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.57	53	26.4%14 W · 39 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	+21%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b5…aa4dbacked Yes	9c	712.99$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.21	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.18per pick	30cpaid	-79.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes	10c	650$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.11per pick	20cpaid	-78.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes	23c	624$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.14	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	12c	623.77$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.32	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x243f…12fabacked Yes	20c	614.67$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes	28c	580.29$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	431	26.2%113 W · 318 L	+2.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	10c	569.42$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.2	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes	12c	553.46$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.55	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes	14c	533.12$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.99	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfed7…5490backed Yes	12c	531.87$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.36	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes	7c	528$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.68	230	19.1%44 W · 186 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5822…0d28backed Yes	15c	469.83$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.25	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf2a…3832backed Yes	15c	464.29$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	3c	463.67$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.34	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8667…8e0bbacked Yes	12c	450$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.1	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c5f…a235backed Yes	14c	441$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.04	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes	23c	432.04$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	61	19.7%12 W · 49 L	-6.8wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	4c	410.94$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.95	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes	16c	399.99$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d21…d7cdbacked Yes	25c	364.79$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.55	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	9c	351$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.1	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x366c…ec01backed Yes	8c	331.64$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+107.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	9c	328.95$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	266	19.5%52 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x785a…6b22backed Yes	15c	303.07$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	17c	300.16$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.65	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Yes	11c	300$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-2.7wins	-0.12per pick	17cpaid	-84.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeee2…c260backed Yes	18c	287.19$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.67	125	23.2%29 W · 96 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x98ec…8fd6backed Yes	18c	284.02$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf8…bfd6backed Yes	18c	283.69$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-68.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8498…d219backed Yes	17c	277.17$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.39	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	14c	252.47$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f5e…761fbacked Yes	9c	243.91$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.95	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc12b…8f76backed Yes	15c	237.4$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	-47%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf72…a19fbacked Yes	14c	226.61$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.73	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	14c	224$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.34	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7076…19d0backed Yes	22c	223.6$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.71	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	+65.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	14c	210$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.67	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x81ad…3ae0backed Yes	12c	208.33$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xcf3d…d571backed Yes	15c	204.89$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc14b…3ea8backed Yes	19c	200$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x055e…de32backed Yes	8c	200$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	47	36.2%17 W · 30 L	+4.0wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	-6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbed…c997backed Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	+3.3wins	+0.10per pick	11cpaid	+78.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b5a…4407backed Yes	14c	200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77ed…d041backed Yes	23c	200$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa1de…85d9backed Yes	24c	200$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+41.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5609…33f4backed Yes	22c	198.66$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.3	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb068…2e33backed Yes	23c	197.12$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c22…9717backed Yes	23c	195.34$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.63	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e89…af95backed Yes	13c	190$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.7	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.18per pick	15cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x900e…d53ebacked Yes	11c	184.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.31	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x890d…782cbacked Yes	21c	182.05$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	60	21.7%13 W · 47 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88e2…8b9cbacked Yes	12c	177.14$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b56…0a28backed Yes	29c	172.41$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5242…5a2cbacked Yes	13c	170.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.99	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes	13c	169.06$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.44	128	10.9%14 W · 114 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf89…700dbacked Yes	12c	167.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes	8c	167.11$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.59	92	29.3%27 W · 65 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	18c	166.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event