Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc777d5e091149dc5a5db26893f1520e194de1fb236d0ab45ff63ea8d3ae5549f

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 8, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $72,131
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $20,967

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,131 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	1c	6,870$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.47	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e44…393abacked Yes	0c	5,200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	7c	1,092$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.03	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes	3c	876$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.35	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	2c	850.74$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.96	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	3c	771.17$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.6	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	2c	769.98$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	10c	725.82$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.72	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	10c	564.19$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.6	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	509.26$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	7c	421.08$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5463…f01dbacked Yes	9c	149.55$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.46	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf065…3471backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event