Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a319d0f88192c3fbaa366f636baea029fa3a9c0dfd34b124af286d26e3a6c68

Rebuilt 2 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 10, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $217,463
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $117,256

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,463 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	58,177$679 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$679.18	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	6,052$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.85	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	5,917$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.81	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	5,005$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.8	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	2,551$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.39	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes	4c	2,500$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.72	128	10.9%14 W · 114 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,461$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.22	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	4c	1,670$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.63	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	4c	1,488$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.98	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	1,181$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.54	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	1,171$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.66	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	3c	1,100$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.94	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	6c	1,099$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.31	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes	3c	1,000$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d9…b40fbacked Yes	5c	1,000$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7051…f573backed Yes	4c	1,000$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab89…b881backed Yes	5c	1,000$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	2c	1,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.3	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	3c	999.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.75	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	5c	999.34$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.8	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe863…e221backed Yes	5c	643.43$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	53	26.4%14 W · 39 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	+21%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	4c	585.33$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.04	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	4c	460.32$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	5c	410$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.27	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes	5c	384$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.37	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-2.7wins	-0.12per pick	17cpaid	-84.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	5c	276.12$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	7c	213.16$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.94	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event