Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8b77ff68297d87f04cc35d9eb2a99cea3eb9730770422f9723ed0b7aeb12285
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $305,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $305,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 0c | 101,000$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…81bcbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7f…4846backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9713…fb1fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d5…afd9backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe090…6f22backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…2a3dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…a667backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e63…c7f6backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe468…5d22backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…305abacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x184d…281abacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…1335backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…6f65backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2280…479fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,900$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 1c | 4,304$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 2c | 4,196$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 1c | 4,127$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 1c | 3,193$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 3c | 2,809$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,598$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 2c | 2,108$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 2c | 1,696$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,484$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,061$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…c9e1backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…f037backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefcb…85dabacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58fb…463dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1d…6569backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c9…8136backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…8ea5backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3aa…d3d7backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc910…dab5backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7420…5635backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…ff0dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x895f…5481backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2655…25fabacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…0ae6backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d7…21f7backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8f…bb5ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…2216backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…cbd2backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03b9…6fe8backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x621a…56ffbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e7…18c4backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb24…09d1backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa47a…d494backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 1c | 999.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…4a92backed Yes | 2c | 999.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 2c | 966.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…426dbacked Yes | 2c | 900$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…e221backed Yes | 4c | 687.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 3c | 633.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb409…d114backed Yes | 3c | 450.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.