TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,610,099
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,506,556

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,610,099 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 340 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes14c115,885$16,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,594.2535123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes24c74,337$18,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,012.463835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked No75c46,898$34,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,905.7219535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes19c45,107$8,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,443.7237745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x530e…cc11backed Yes19c35,297$6,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,710.16123%14 W · 47 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick12cpaid+143.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7e12…1c24backed No69c31,240$21,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,547.01650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes6c30,395$1,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,751.6718425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee50…7ed6backed No70c30,000$20,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,076.13250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1630…e3fdbacked Yes25c29,764$7,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,407.891952.6%10 W · 9 L+6.1wins+0.32per pick21cpaid+187.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes22c28,068$6,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,129.7625824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf562…4099backed Yes2c20,664$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.26175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-89.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes4c20,023$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.256417.2%11 W · 53 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+163.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1735…ea15backed Yes13c17,839$2,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,365.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+97.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90b5…d709backed Yes0c17,662$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.61140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes0c16,700$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3940%0 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes18c16,172$2,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,846.85659.2%6 W · 59 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x415a…2a7fbacked Yes8c14,520$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.44475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick27cpaid+201.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x252d…c456backed Yes24c14,284$3,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,375.4647721.6%103 W · 374 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes10c14,120$1,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360.7412824.2%31 W · 97 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8643…0234backed Yes2c12,583$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes36c12,454$4,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4445034%17 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c12,015$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.451360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes32c11,606$3,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,673.611554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c11,494$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.881,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked No54c11,000$5,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0803748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes6c10,876$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.3514337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5be1…fb0dbacked Yes1c10,397$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No60c10,000$5,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,001.74839.6%19 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3e…d1c4backed Yes10c9,755$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e45…ae93backed Yes32c9,368$2,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,977.341330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb88b…5d65backed Yes27c8,987$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes27c8,235$2,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,253.7855032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked No63c8,134$5,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,976.782470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f23…b36ebacked Yes3c7,921$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5ab…7dc4backed Yes28c7,722$2,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,198.8950%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc9…7361backed Yes19c7,479$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,420832.4%2 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed Yes14c7,254$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.9419439.2%76 W · 118 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes2c6,526$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.94128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-88.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd78…dcd8backed No48c5,900$2,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,067.991250%6 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc037…7240backed No54c5,508$2,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,526.21457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d5c…7d29backed Yes8c5,300$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.027328.8%21 W · 52 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ff6…a199backed Yes2c5,081$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb00…e9c7backed Yes7c4,788$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x335d…5692backed Yes2c4,642$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c53…6790backed Yes2c4,567$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes10c4,518$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.662416.7%4 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9010…32a0backed Yes14c4,446$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.21811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e9…1279backed No76c4,316$3,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes12c4,050$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.9518315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85c9…8beabacked No78c4,046$3,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.182157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f1…bd0dbacked Yes25c4,011$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes15c3,964$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.153625%9 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+86.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75e9…fc9fbacked Yes10c3,835$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.287423%17 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes21c3,230$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.8687828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bbf…8de3backed Yes17c3,024$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefbd…8086backed Yes20c3,005$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.06190%0 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3db5…70f9backed Yes23c2,861$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b42…4eb6backed Yes27c2,838$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.41040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa1…676dbacked Yes0c2,799$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.53224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1730…0885backed No73c2,731$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.82520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-72.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63c4…cb0cbacked Yes23c2,650$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x50df…1f07backed Yes21c2,610$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1765…a60bbacked Yes4c2,538$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f8a…698abacked Yes1c2,487$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a9a…1a5bbacked No80c2,463$1,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick73cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58bc…a883backed No80c2,313$1,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.66933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-51.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes1c2,306$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.838010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked Yes33c2,226$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.9717229.7%51 W · 121 L-13.0wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf69b…0a45backed Yes30c2,164$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.969927.3%27 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3975…0f53backed Yes1c2,135$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.32508%4 W · 46 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b2c…d74cbacked Yes2c2,063$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No49c2,050$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.93831.6%12 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75e1…3a26backed No69c2,045$1,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.381942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked No66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-87.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e99…bce3backed Yes5c1,900$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9460%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes6c1,900$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.996311.1%7 W · 56 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+519.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x06ac…1af2backed Yes15c1,736$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265120%0 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e81…8406backed No47c1,701$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.752213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-75.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeeb6…b5f4backed Yes1c1,695$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick3cpaid+1,546.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b30…30cfbacked Yes30c1,685$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d8a…8ff2backed Yes6c1,646$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d46…dcd1backed No74c1,627$1,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.481145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+45.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f35…4437backed Yes3c1,560$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781e…2484backed Yes20c1,507$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.62560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+25.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2ca…e881backed No59c1,500$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.93100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+74.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe80f…3354backed No58c1,500$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6253839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-30.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce49…c3b9backed Yes2c1,475$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a26…8acbbacked Yes30c1,473$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4407139.4%28 W · 43 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes20c1,444$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.717140.8%29 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bda…7251backed Yes2c1,403$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.861711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4b7…f9e3backed No78c1,400$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.61729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-60.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f86…81e0backed Yes4c1,400$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe994…331bbacked Yes2c1,390$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1250%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked No65c1,362$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.285453.7%29 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82bb…85a8backed Yes1c1,353$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.59540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-38%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7ac…5ce0backed No75c1,300$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3252100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+133.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c49…2eeabacked Yes1c1,222$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes12c1,190$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.2140643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x658d…b95dbacked Yes29c1,181$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.091656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick41cpaid-3.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb70…7a87backed Yes24c1,157$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.