TailMyPicks
Market

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum reach $5200 in October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,356,234
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,383,046

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,356,234 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 269 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x77dc…7897backed Yes29c89,656$26,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,03590%0 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No69c50,471$34,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,681.985869%40 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc18…ec17backed Yes20c44,363$8,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,673.662832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb870…ea5dbacked No60c30,000$18,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,0002100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x78a1…5551backed Yes20c25,001$4,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,965.28170%0 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f51…531ebacked Yes2c25,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600520%0 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6aa…a40cbacked Yes1c23,148$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.8680%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98c3…b28dbacked No70c21,572$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,571.553100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+105.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Yes20c20,905$4,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,166.5680%0 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes35c20,000$6,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,951.4919535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes5c19,612$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.451333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes5c14,700$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.6818315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked No75c13,131$9,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,234.6818425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x751a…9ea1backed No66c12,829$8,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,311.875662.5%35 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x249b…5df1backed Yes23c12,597$2,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,889.667619.7%15 W · 61 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3928…15e4backed No80c12,500$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5006100%6 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cda…f20cbacked Yes40c12,458$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+123%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98b7…5d11backed Yes10c11,303$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa279…0371backed No73c11,006$8,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,923.085444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes11c10,945$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2215034%17 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc576…747abacked Yes8c10,821$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865.69425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes0c10,244$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.448010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5bb…a429backed No56c9,999$5,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,399.64151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a84…4612backed Yes4c9,995$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.86922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e81…8406backed Yes10c9,107$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9482213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-75.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c9,008$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.931,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa19a…8545backed Yes6c8,353$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46250%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x252d…c456backed No71c8,018$5,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,302.5647721.6%103 W · 374 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No70c7,999$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.814839.6%19 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c7,644$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.521360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c7,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9066…c20abacked No75c7,273$5,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,810.1115561.9%96 W · 59 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked No75c7,019$5,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,778.4455032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07cb…daf3backed Yes12c6,159$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.571711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-69.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a9d…6e90backed Yes0c5,840$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x137f…968dbacked Yes2c5,722$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10090%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0978…0d99backed Yes14c5,420$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.43160%0 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2c0…46ebbacked Yes10c5,001$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9363…3608backed Yes10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500140%0 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Yes35c5,000$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,750875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes7c5,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-87.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8225…c4a8backed Yes11c4,894$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc53c…0eb4backed No74c4,431$3,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.037652.6%40 W · 36 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8a55…cfc4backed No72c4,300$3,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,197.095156.9%29 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+34%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x26eb…265dbacked Yes4c4,126$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.54333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5117…d36fbacked Yes25c4,069$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00080%0 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc0de…8cc4backed Yes0c4,008$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0270%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc453…2bcdbacked No72c3,800$2,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,078.255554.5%30 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed Yes31c3,767$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.652832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeec0…37c1backed Yes0c3,730$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.19220%0 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6e1…02d8backed Yes2c3,608$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed No76c3,500$2,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83513863%87 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes4c3,490$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.2625824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6dc…246ebacked No58c3,329$1,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,405.1713770.1%96 W · 41 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes2c3,200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6411554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x551b…dfd1backed Yes16c3,125$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-72.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3283…d1ffbacked Yes3c3,012$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf806…a8b6backed Yes34c2,941$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00050%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9220…8585backed Yes0c2,696$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb49…a376backed No70c2,424$1,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.324845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa366…54efbacked No72c2,405$1,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.9515754.8%86 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes11c2,377$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.3824654.9%135 W · 111 L+16.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes10c2,280$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.663625%9 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+86.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked No74c2,222$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.722470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8a…b391backed No71c2,201$1,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.39366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcec0…5ca4backed Yes6c2,179$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.0350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4648…fc9fbacked Yes17c2,053$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.797018.6%13 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e3c…a02abacked Yes9c2,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e9…fc9fbacked Yes15c1,979$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.397423%17 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63d7…4422backed Yes8c1,930$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.04616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+54.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9617…0d97backed Yes5c1,722$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcca0…3738backed Yes42c1,667$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+73.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde7a…2966backed Yes45c1,453$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.9460%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes2c1,393$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.11267.7%2 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid-69.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b90…3d27backed Yes6c1,329$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.04812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid-45.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb07a…98f7backed Yes15c1,307$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1961816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97a7…49f7backed No66c1,150$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.859546.3%44 W · 51 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5426…1339backed Yes25c1,096$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276290%0 W · 29 L-6.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9823…40b9backed Yes19c1,053$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20090%0 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed Yes24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+66.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb644…d6e1backed Yes24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-63.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…f1a8backed Yes32c1,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e51…3e80backed Yes20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200170%0 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe80f…3354backed Yes7c999.71$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.983839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-30.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e17…fa8bbacked Yes2c985.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2090%0 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f71…912dbacked Yes5c935.22$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.02695.8%4 W · 65 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a9…c093backed Yes1c926.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.87120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d4f…fda5backed Yes6c909.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-49.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63e4…a584backed No66c903.45$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No71c901.93$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.4211658.6%68 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4775…c57dbacked Yes2c880.48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.214216.7%7 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick20cpaid+68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92a3…f569backed Yes17c878.24$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6519…76cabacked No79c853.8$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.3650%3 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-36.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd33…cf51backed No80c800$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1604165.9%27 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ed3…aa68backed No55c724.72$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.72757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0c1…8a69backed Yes4c700$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26f3…a4e4backed Yes4c700$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6b4…262ebacked Yes4c690$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3558…0ecebacked Yes2c689.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.