TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,662,515
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,125,187

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,662,515 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 796 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x31d8…e99bbacked Yes7c522,885$35,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,082.7140%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0de…8cc4backed Yes3c355,453$11,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,712.8470%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77dc…7897backed Yes21c134,184$28,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,490.0390%0 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6bd4…8acabacked Yes36c125,000$45,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,999.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcff6…a2d5backed Yes1c90,166$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca5a…7e43backed No50c67,900$33,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,9501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x554c…071fbacked Yes17c57,805$9,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,859.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78a1…5551backed Yes27c54,200$14,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,578.12170%0 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f5c…bd4dbacked Yes2c50,370$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x828f…60bbbacked Yes11c47,991$5,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,51030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No56c46,152$25,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,450.35869%40 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80aa…67c6backed Yes4c34,445$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c34,279$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.841360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc18…ec17backed Yes28c34,183$9,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,715.462832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Yes24c33,147$7,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,816.2880%0 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a29…9b2ebacked No64c31,495$20,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,326.65425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-61%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes51c30,001$15,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,347.1719535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a84…4612backed Yes6c27,016$1,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,733.61922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55fa…6ebabacked Yes13c26,806$3,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,563.14119.1%1 W · 10 L-4.6wins-0.42per pick51cpaid-88.3%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x245c…b8d7backed Yes5c26,357$1,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,291.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe64e…2143backed Yes38c25,865$9,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,810.051145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+51.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca33…918cbacked No68c25,687$17,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,143.67966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes13c21,917$2,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,869.291333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa60e…d332backed Yes20c21,673$4,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,290.44540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes2c21,399$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.39022.2%20 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-28.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa279…0371backed No63c20,761$12,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,780.025444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x53e7…8967backed Yes5c19,599$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked No68c18,833$12,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,970.97875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4cad…e7ebbacked Yes8c18,732$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,507.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x252d…c456backed No72c18,694$13,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,199.3347721.6%103 W · 374 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09c2…3d04backed Yes56c18,420$10,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,225.38520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98c3…b28dbacked No57c17,621$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,620.693100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+105.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x201a…d9e3backed Yes32c17,257$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,600119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-49.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa37d…d9c2backed Yes16c16,693$2,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,618.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa78f…72dbbacked Yes10c16,056$1,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,539.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb401…df2abacked Yes7c15,656$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.722142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5117…d36fbacked Yes33c15,287$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00080%0 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb532…84a4backed Yes34c14,887$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x751a…9ea1backed No62c14,794$9,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,592.785662.5%35 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3928…15e4backed No71c13,994$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,994.126100%6 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x249b…5df1backed Yes48c13,805$6,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,558.567619.7%15 W · 61 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4648…fc9fbacked Yes34c13,228$4,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,499.27018.6%13 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4104…c5f6backed Yes20c12,999$2,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,663.131735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes17c12,461$2,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,109.845034%17 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b1d…4a8cbacked Yes14c12,437$1,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,741.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0856…dd1abacked Yes18c10,317$1,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8944555.6%25 W · 20 L+7.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6f87…f277backed No50c10,023$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,022.89475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+25.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes13c10,020$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.233625%9 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+86.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0002544%11 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f51…531ebacked Yes2c10,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%0 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5077…4e7cbacked Yes5c10,000$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeec0…37c1backed Yes1c10,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70220%0 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8e0…b495backed Yes2c10,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No41c9,785$3,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,798.18862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+18.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed No72c9,589$6,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,729.7725824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c9,522$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.691,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c0…a417backed Yes4c9,301$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd12a…96bbbacked Yes23c8,964$2,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,082.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cad…4018backed Yes23c8,934$2,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,077.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes10c8,749$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.918315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x795c…2093backed No37c8,733$3,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,473.37757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8790…7122backed Yes37c8,500$3,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,14520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa37f…db31backed Yes5c8,380$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1440…43b0backed Yes9c8,020$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d4f…fda5backed Yes33c7,924$2,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,606.062123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-49.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa366…54efbacked No75c7,486$5,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,852.6615754.8%86 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes10c7,207$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.9190%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e3c…a02abacked Yes10c7,074$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eff…6c34backed Yes7c6,771$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe113…6451backed Yes17c6,642$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,131.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5768…70b0backed Yes6c6,343$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6dc…246ebacked No53c5,968$3,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,808.2613770.1%96 W · 41 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked No72c5,392$3,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,534.4155032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbab3…e2a2backed Yes17c5,331$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5d3…7acbbacked Yes19c5,294$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes44c5,294$2,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,329.4434848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9363…3608backed Yes20c5,000$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.18140%0 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ec…a6d9backed Yes11c5,000$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.0790%0 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5bb…a429backed No54c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,299.964151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ce5…8702backed Yes4c4,877$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe300…8a97backed Yes19c4,870$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.380%0 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed Yes23c4,837$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.2819439.2%76 W · 118 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes1c4,700$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.68010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e81…8406backed Yes11c4,475$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4952213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-75.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd8cb…823abacked Yes2c4,206$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98b7…5d11backed Yes15c4,070$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd06…c715backed Yes3c4,028$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf21a…b6e3backed Yes35c4,012$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4001662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed Yes50c3,904$1,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,945.032832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes12c3,872$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.23128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-87.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb617…e50abacked Yes13c3,759$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c42…a97abacked Yes22c3,752$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x551f…cebdbacked Yes9c3,641$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde7a…2966backed Yes51c3,547$1,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,821.6360%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes14c3,484$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.5264812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xff65…8725backed Yes6c3,478$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2c0…46ebbacked Yes15c3,334$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xed8c…5238backed Yes15c3,307$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca1…35b3backed Yes3c3,291$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a61…3748backed Yes15c3,270$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.