TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$438,426
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$442,273

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $438,426 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd769…f90cbacked No41c89,000$36,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,479.0319535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ed3…aa68backed No0c84,140$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9066…c20abacked Yes50c37,129$18,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,584.7715561.9%96 W · 59 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x252d…c456backed Yes38c25,979$9,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,030.2647721.6%103 W · 374 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes29c24,482$7,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,299.8935123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes32c19,993$6,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,624.5963835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes35c17,677$6,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,533.8455032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes30c14,134$4,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,844.4137745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa279…0371backed Yes65c12,667$8,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,478.315444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd1…2365backed No71c11,000$7,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,809.751060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb14e…f64cbacked No57c9,000$5,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,090250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes37c8,483$3,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,379.7924654.9%135 W · 111 L+16.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf69b…0a45backed Yes32c6,731$2,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,550.089927.3%27 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x415a…2a7fbacked Yes33c6,029$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,029.41475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick27cpaid+201.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x55fa…6ebabacked No63c5,628$3,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,566.51119.1%1 W · 10 L-4.6wins-0.42per pick51cpaid-88.3%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xfeb5…a393backed Yes71c5,475$3,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,60816761.7%103 W · 64 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xafe4…62d0backed No64c5,050$3,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,230.99812.5%1 W · 7 L-4.8wins-0.59per pick72cpaid-84.4%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x8b42…4eb6backed Yes22c4,570$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,546.331040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb49…a376backed Yes54c3,418$1,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.074845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7458…fecfbacked No77c3,000$2,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3103855.3%21 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick58cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc53c…0eb4backed Yes54c3,000$1,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,384.867652.6%40 W · 36 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes29c2,985$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,109.1418425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes74c2,942$2,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.2411554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0856…dd1abacked Yes21c2,781$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,199.964555.6%25 W · 20 L+7.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8a55…cfc4backed Yes53c2,600$1,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.165156.9%29 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+34%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes24c2,566$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,942.6425824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No41c2,550$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.53831.6%12 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3740…b396backed No72c2,029$1,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,460.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x098b…ca72backed No1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x018a…cec9backed Yes23c2,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,54012100%12 W · 0 L+8.4wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+301.4%equal weight75+0.23 edge/pick
0xa366…54efbacked Yes55c1,850$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.7515754.8%86 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x622e…a35cbacked No72c1,765$1,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,271.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e81…8406backed No64c1,723$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1002213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-75.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x89e6…6819backed No65c1,673$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65f4…6913backed No75c1,634$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cbc…6c76backed No65c1,587$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aa1…57a7backed No75c1,575$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,179.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75e1…3a26backed No79c1,550$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.91942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x911d…4bcabacked No78c1,550$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,216.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7809…826abacked No79c1,534$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x722f…6768backed No77c1,497$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05d4…92f5backed Yes34c1,471$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.591464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd572…0fb3backed No75c1,453$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a53…4986backed No77c1,451$1,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5da4…a77fbacked No75c1,431$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbfd…2542backed No76c1,419$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd14c…17bebacked No66c1,400$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9203246.9%15 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd04…6382backed Yes20c1,247$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+398.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e47…ecf7backed No38c1,150$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4363324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-49.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc453…2bcdbacked Yes54c1,100$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5065554.5%30 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd8bf…8ecebacked No38c1,010$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.92630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed No22c1,006$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.3219439.2%76 W · 118 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2901333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0032…bbb1backed No77c1,000$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked No10c999.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01d1…8c91backed No80c999.15$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.321926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-47.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa1…676dbacked Yes23c941.99$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.45224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e9…fc9fbacked Yes29c843.76$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.797423%17 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0ce…3fc6backed No59c750$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4391921.1%4 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.22per pick43cpaid-58.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xea8d…b3ccbacked No72c694.44$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick58cpaid-33.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes28c676$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.643625%9 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+86.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No70c642.72$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.9711658.6%68 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked No26c571.43$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501520%3 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-47.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007219.4%14 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ab9…e2f0backed No75c500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbda8…790ebacked Yes19c499.92$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.93650%3 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+106.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x69bc…577dbacked No49c411.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004654.3%25 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c57…eb35backed No79c360$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.46464.1%41 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d0…f642backed Yes28c357.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01ac…c01cbacked Yes35c346.43$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.432100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+133.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes22c318.18$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.181747.1%8 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.33per pick14cpaid+200.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x51da…1076backed No65c307.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde89…c286backed Yes33c303.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf750…4abbbacked No44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13211442.1%48 W · 66 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79fd…78cebacked No33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-29%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes25c300$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2251533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x637d…2392backed Yes30c298$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.567048.6%34 W · 36 L+13.9wins+0.20per pick29cpaid+58.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xa6f6…a2a3backed Yes35c287.6$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.94425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a0…9684backed No67c280$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.43844.7%17 W · 21 L-7.7wins-0.20per pick65cpaid-35%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x8d5c…7d29backed Yes20c237.64$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.117328.8%21 W · 52 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x430a…ff11backed Yes33c219.44$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.625955.9%33 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb635…f0fdbacked Yes46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.39425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-45.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8395…0454backed No50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a8c…b52cbacked Yes28c178.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Yes58c148.51$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.3126274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x446a…af10backed Yes34c147.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.06475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+40.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a60…210ebacked No74c142.86$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f66…a655backed No77c142.36$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x259a…991dbacked Yes33c134.71$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.713138.7%12 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91eb…cebbbacked No76c129.86$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59a7…34e6backed No80c128.85$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.08633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e05…de0abacked No74c108.61$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22a9…2d50backed No78c108.23$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.232860.7%17 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick73cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd38c…f6f3backed Yes19c105$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.41414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4640…7137backed Yes25c103.09$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.121662.5%10 W · 6 L+4.3wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+108%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed No54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5417953.6%96 W · 83 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7010545.7%48 W · 57 L+22.9wins+0.22per pick24cpaid+94.2%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x96ed…3f71backed No74c96.2$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc94…7a23backed No74c93.01$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd883…429abacked No73c92.73$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.