Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $3600 in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfee2ae80fb479919ecf3487ac5892fd0522a0bd06466c0cdf4e28740c8ae4d00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,785,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,783,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,785,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ed3…aa68backed No | 0c | 1,308,632$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked No | 62c | 111,292$68,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68,516.1 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 15c | 89,833$13,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76,435.65 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x415a…2a7fbacked Yes | 14c | 28,230$3,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,326.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +201.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 37c | 25,442$9,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,004.68 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 29c | 24,549$7,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,454.23 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 35c | 16,125$5,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,528.77 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 21c | 15,620$3,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,288.32 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 13c | 14,763$1,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,770.86 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 19c | 9,500$1,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,705.38 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 20c | 7,000$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,629.99 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5c…7d29backed Yes | 13c | 5,558$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,841.03 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0856…dd1abacked Yes | 9c | 5,211$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,748.32 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 30c | 5,000$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,487.49 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 17c | 4,011$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,329.26 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc453…2bcdbacked Yes | 21c | 3,759$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,970.84 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…8406backed No | 54c | 3,447$1,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,851.35 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 76c | 3,000$2,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,290 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…ee4bbacked No | 77c | 3,000$2,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,310 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a55…cfc4backed Yes | 22c | 3,000$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,352 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +34%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…0371backed No | 68c | 2,731$1,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,865.66 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…a376backed Yes | 25c | 2,700$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,017.16 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53c…0eb4backed Yes | 22c | 2,698$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,103.64 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 12c | 2,658$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,342.69 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…cec9backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,779.99 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +8.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +301.4%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x75e9…fc9fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,644$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.75 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f45…75b2backed No | 74c | 1,639$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked No | 77c | 1,350$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.8 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 12c | 813.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.84 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.33per pick | 14cpaid | +200.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa366…54efbacked Yes | 24c | 811.54$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.83 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 15c | 750$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Yes | 80c | 723.82$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 16c | 525$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed No | 74c | 500$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 75c | 495$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.25 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781e…2484backed Yes | 46c | 400$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b4…9420backed No | 77c | 400$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…e269backed Yes | 14c | 365.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.07 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed No | 64c | 360$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 69cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…2392backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +13.9wins | +0.20per pick | 29cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 41c | 291.49$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.68 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4640…7137backed Yes | 22c | 276.27$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.31 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +108%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…ecf7backed No | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7908…b249backed Yes | 80c | 249.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +519.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +22.9wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 15c | 185.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.29 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x259a…991dbacked Yes | 20c | 178.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.38 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0964…9269backed No | 77c | 154.22$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…2d50backed No | 75c | 132.13$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x149f…bfbdbacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 44c | 105.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…9684backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -7.7wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -35%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…9a74backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a52…882bbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1081…3db0backed No | 71c | 46.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd38c…f6f3backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed1…dc95backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bb…bf3bbacked No | 72c | 26.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d5…6b05backed No | 72c | 24.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $3600 in October?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in October?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4000 in October?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4400 in October?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4600 in October?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5200 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $6000 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.