TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $4000 in October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$871,741
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$876,345

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $871,741 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ed3…aa68backed No0c586,485$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.21757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed No57c22,964$13,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,000757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x098b…ca72backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes50c19,999$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,999.5112025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes48c16,571$7,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,613.5963835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes31c8,834$2,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,053.0625824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa279…0371backed No41c8,587$3,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,484.565444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x252d…c456backed Yes38c8,495$3,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,244.3847721.6%103 W · 374 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9066…c20abacked Yes43c8,468$3,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,824.7915561.9%96 W · 59 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No14c6,293$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.661333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes42c5,637$2,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,250.437745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes26c5,574$1,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,125.0411554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x738b…17dabacked No62c5,550$3,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,441250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x415a…2a7fbacked Yes55c5,454$2,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,454.89475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick27cpaid+201.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed No24c5,312$1,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,257.0724654.9%135 W · 111 L+16.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes53c5,249$2,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,465.8155032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b1…775fbacked No74c5,011$3,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,708.031346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf4b…8d73backed No17c5,000$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.992218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0856…dd1abacked Yes36c5,000$1,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,179.934555.6%25 W · 20 L+7.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9e91…e495backed No1c3,020$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No13c2,550$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.253831.6%12 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc84c…f3c0backed No62c2,447$1,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,517.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x55fa…6ebabacked No38c2,344$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.3119.1%1 W · 10 L-4.6wins-0.42per pick51cpaid-88.3%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x610c…38a4backed No60c2,313$1,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,387.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc84…8b56backed No74c2,197$1,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,625.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54fe…a087backed No73c2,194$1,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,597.6820%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x43a8…d354backed No60c2,151$1,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,290.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3a…1cbebacked No60c2,148$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.5320%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7aa7…2c08backed No66c2,048$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84012259.8%73 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes40c2,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20018425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x018a…cec9backed Yes42c2,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,16012100%12 W · 0 L+8.4wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+301.4%equal weight75+0.23 edge/pick
0x2e3e…1886backed No59c1,993$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb753…aa33backed No56c1,983$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1072…7333backed No59c1,978$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b42…4eb6backed Yes50c1,967$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.721040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b62…9fd0backed No62c1,959$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe1…b315backed No60c1,950$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0a0…029cbacked No64c1,854$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,186.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf610…3487backed No66c1,853$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,223.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6eee…6c22backed No74c1,814$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x795b…5f77backed No63c1,812$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a0a…f913backed No63c1,717$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e7c…1dc9backed No77c1,673$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a5c…98f5backed No77c1,665$1,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,281.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x697f…339abacked No75c1,596$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8daf…0b51backed No74c1,561$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dc8…5d7fbacked No74c1,558$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2491…000cbacked No77c1,540$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa479…2815backed No75c1,539$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba03…8bb9backed No74c1,494$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3863…eaa6backed No61c1,348$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.330%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x234b…9f7ebacked Yes56c1,307$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.66450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc18…ec17backed No15c1,125$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.752832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked No10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed Yes66c1,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34013863%87 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe80f…3354backed No10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-30.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf69b…0a45backed Yes41c994.66$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.679927.3%27 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc53c…0eb4backed Yes34c957.09$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.437652.6%40 W · 36 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5fa7…01bdbacked No58c865$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.71457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a7…34e6backed No62c810.59$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9750…bb53backed No38c781.58$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick56cpaid-59.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9196…c311backed No52c772.93$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40012736.2%46 W · 81 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8395…0454backed No18c738.89$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbda8…790ebacked Yes36c700$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450650%3 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+106.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x430a…ff11backed Yes49c664.2$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.145955.9%33 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x75e9…fc9fbacked Yes40c640.37$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.037423%17 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x578f…f112backed Yes38c583.26$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.325756.1%32 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0978…0d99backed No52c580$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.6160%0 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes39c528.88$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.323625%9 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+86.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe910…0ecdbacked No57c526.32$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30090%0 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd6b6…af8bbacked Yes42c524.99$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.3414075.7%106 W · 34 L+17.6wins+0.13per pick63cpaid+22.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa659…1eaabacked No48c521.35$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a55…cfc4backed Yes24c500$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3805156.9%29 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+34%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x471b…b18fbacked Yes35c500$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-17.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc453…2bcdbacked Yes24c500$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3805554.5%30 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa366…54efbacked Yes34c496.82$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.3815754.8%86 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a59…8e5cbacked No61c459.91$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.071866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a26…8acbbacked Yes37c445.64$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.647139.4%28 W · 43 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb49…a376backed Yes24c400$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3044845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x259a…991dbacked Yes51c343.4$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.33138.7%12 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e47…ecf7backed No12c327.18$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.263324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-49.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf073…72fdbacked No56c327.18$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3901…bdafbacked No50c323.4$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb41…a826backed No57c286.6$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.36520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed Yes39c268.6$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.365971.2%42 W · 17 L+11.1wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+28.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x0a64…6467backed Yes47c254.32$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.792860.7%17 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0502…7547backed Yes26c250$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1852030%6 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.20per pick10cpaid+73.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5214…9196backed No62c250$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked No73c246.95$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1803033.3%10 W · 20 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-44.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8c57…eb35backed No76c240$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.46464.1%41 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x637d…2392backed Yes47c240$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.87048.6%34 W · 36 L+13.9wins+0.20per pick29cpaid+58.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xf1c9…21abbacked No21c220.24$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99ad…d3b3backed No64c218.13$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb9d…d78ebacked No61c203.47$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.622814.3%4 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-64.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f4e…31cbbacked Yes39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1221172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20b5…4bd7backed Yes46c199.85$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.923458.8%20 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22a9…2d50backed No68c188.75$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.832860.7%17 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick73cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5768…d072backed Yes75c182.4$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0bf…84c7backed Yes58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.411442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.