Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd03f325bdd4aea4b9a9a455b6a17bd33aa98bd832da70bf250338bc48da82d22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $460,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $411,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $460,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf562…4099backed Yes | 2c | 54,306$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230.94 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…cc11backed Yes | 3c | 31,969$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.95 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +143.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…6f07backed Yes | 2c | 31,065$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.6 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1630…e3fdbacked Yes | 7c | 14,954$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.03 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +6.1wins | +0.32per pick | 21cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 12,613$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 94 | 0%0 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 4c | 11,950$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.42 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…0ec7backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 1.9%1 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -97.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1c…55cabacked Yes | 0c | 9,750$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 6c | 7,507$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.9 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 6,001$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.59 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd9…d794backed Yes | 0c | 5,553$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…5f5bbacked Yes | 6c | 5,000$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa38…e13abacked Yes | 9c | 4,466$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…32a0backed Yes | 6c | 3,845$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes | 17c | 3,509$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…1af2backed Yes | 6c | 1,842$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,732$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.69 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d2…2381backed Yes | 8c | 1,616$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.19 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,381$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.95 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,196$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce6…ea34backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 4c | 920.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 9c | 842.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…f537backed Yes | 2c | 657.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x031b…babcbacked Yes | 7c | 509.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd026…1245backed Yes | 8c | 500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…edd6backed Yes | 6c | 484.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…7567backed Yes | 10c | 397.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 12c | 334.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…5b4cbacked Yes | 8c | 180.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…3f04backed Yes | 14c | 173.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 148.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3600 in October?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in October?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4000 in October?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4400 in October?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4600 in October?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5200 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $6000 in October?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.