TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$688,000
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$643,489

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $688,000 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes19c56,245$10,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,581.2535123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x530e…cc11backed Yes16c30,731$4,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,809.546123%14 W · 47 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick12cpaid+143.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf562…4099backed Yes2c21,600$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.22175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-89.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd2…d91ebacked No78c20,708$16,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,523.713060%18 W · 12 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick73cpaid-17.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes14c18,885$2,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,723.1725824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes14c18,596$2,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,563.6437745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked No72c15,995$11,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,481.12470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes2c13,557$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.0612824.2%31 W · 97 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c12,224$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.161,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes11c12,175$1,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,334.05659.2%6 W · 59 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb88b…5d65backed Yes14c10,946$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x329d…0ec7backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10531.9%1 W · 52 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-97.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5844…aa7ebacked Yes1c10,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes2c9,532$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.2518425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbab3…e2a2backed Yes12c8,527$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No66c5,999$3,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,039.63475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x335d…5692backed Yes2c5,293$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70a4…eff2backed Yes7c4,931$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.278713.8%12 W · 75 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d5c…7d29backed Yes4c4,588$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.17328.8%21 W · 52 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes37c4,547$1,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,683.61128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-88.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd69…0986backed Yes11c4,493$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-85%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes10c4,424$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.642416.7%4 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c4,235$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.021360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3975…0f53backed Yes1c4,208$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.83508%4 W · 46 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes13c3,875$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.8487828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes23c3,635$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.1255032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f8a…698abacked Yes1c3,583$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e9…fc9fbacked Yes4c3,517$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.617423%17 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1630…e3fdbacked Yes15c3,470$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5271952.6%10 W · 9 L+6.1wins+0.32per pick21cpaid+187.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xbecc…5f5bbacked Yes18c2,780$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes8c2,666$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.8618315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bbf…8de3backed Yes12c2,532$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x578f…f112backed Yes4c2,016$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.25756.1%32 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefbd…8086backed Yes10c2,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190190%0 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes8c1,741$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.923625%9 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+86.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1eb…7afebacked No74c1,500$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3871225%3 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-60.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2220…9c74backed Yes2c1,500$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed Yes43c1,499$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06ac…1af2backed Yes16c1,491$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240120%0 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b42…4eb6backed Yes17c1,327$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.621040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f55…74dabacked No77c1,304$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.78955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781e…2484backed Yes19c1,200$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+25.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a26…8acbbacked Yes18c1,127$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007139.4%28 W · 43 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd611…24fdbacked Yes2c1,027$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3bc…bf85backed Yes1c1,019$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbffa…1c3bbacked Yes2c967.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5108…bb52backed No76c850.92$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes4c799.96$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316311.1%7 W · 56 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+519.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x68f3…776cbacked Yes11c735.41$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.461822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-36.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9010…32a0backed Yes13c711.45$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x252d…c456backed Yes16c655.33$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7747721.6%103 W · 374 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xadf9…cdc6backed Yes16c645$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa795…a42bbacked Yes19c600$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd026…1245backed Yes17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855119.6%10 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19c5…511dbacked Yes7c493.84$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355819%11 W · 47 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Yes18c450$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823537.1%13 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+36.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3688…7567backed Yes20c441.44$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1307…bd75backed Yes13c434.02$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561631.3%5 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick16cpaid+80%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ec1…d5a3backed No73c420$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3516…df7ebacked Yes10c408.16$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-65.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes9c400$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.85617.9%10 W · 46 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-32.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeee8…7e06backed Yes14c357$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.656940.6%28 W · 41 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes4c349.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.596417.2%11 W · 53 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+163.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes7c332.76$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9930531.1%95 W · 210 L+0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fe…edd6backed Yes14c323.04$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-63.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb824…bbcfbacked Yes13c320.26$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.686434.4%22 W · 42 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaf4…bde0backed Yes16c314.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed Yes9c305.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.34119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-58.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38b0…e8eebacked Yes13c304.32$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d79…f2d0backed Yes9c300$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.391233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-34%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x430a…ff11backed No74c274.82$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.345955.9%33 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0061…548ebacked Yes20c246.18$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee7a…474abacked Yes10c237.57$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.47333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a66…5b1bbacked No75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+23.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.44250%21 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x990c…5ccfbacked Yes7c199.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141546.7%7 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.28per pick19cpaid+168.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes9c185$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2740643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes17c152.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6664812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7869…a3ddbacked No77c150$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes27c133.33$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x876c…ed4cbacked No75c132.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5dd…4fe5backed Yes38c130.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb34…a1cdbacked Yes30c130$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.572462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e90…6034backed Yes9c122.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x058f…b3c3backed Yes12c110.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.62626.9%7 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+61%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x538e…e285backed Yes19c105.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0abb…6ac7backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.91915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2fa…ed3ebacked No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf03b…39cdbacked No71c99.05$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-29.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x198b…f2ecbacked Yes22c90$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcba3…3ab3backed Yes19c77.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9491…e5bdbacked Yes25c55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x493e…faedbacked Yes24c55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b4…9420backed No74c54.76$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.431216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1247…9ce9backed No79c50.7$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.74062.5%25 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No70c42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.527549.3%37 W · 38 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x54f5…d9c7backed No68c41.13$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.162227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-40.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52e3…8724backed No75c37$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b76…3911backed No80c35.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.