TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,256,174
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,505,072

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,256,174 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x77dc…7897backed Yes23c83,296$19,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,04090%0 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x34f6…03ccbacked Yes30c53,543$15,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,835.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x751a…9ea1backed No77c30,649$23,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,947.275662.5%35 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc18…ec17backed Yes16c26,500$4,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,170.952832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes24c24,002$5,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,842.219535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked No77c22,573$17,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,167.2718425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes5c19,516$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.3818315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c18,014$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.161360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes2c16,824$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.21533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-42.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes5c14,617$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.911333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked No73c12,502$9,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,355.8855032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed No79c12,150$9,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,507.5537745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0de…8cc4backed Yes1c11,782$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a84…4612backed Yes3c10,443$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.85922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f51…531ebacked Yes3c10,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.99520%0 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x78a1…5551backed Yes12c10,000$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156.95170%0 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x252d…c456backed No73c9,602$7,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,593.9347721.6%103 W · 374 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b52…4db0backed No75c7,072$5,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,776.386053.3%32 W · 28 L+7.7wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+3.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes3c6,770$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.3125824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc53c…0eb4backed No70c6,631$4,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,979.137652.6%40 W · 36 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb7a8…74dbbacked Yes33c6,284$2,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,058.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0978…0d99backed Yes7c6,045$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.33160%0 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb43…49e9backed Yes1c5,450$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Yes14c5,417$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.4180%0 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9066…c20abacked Yes15c5,270$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.2415561.9%96 W · 59 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc453…2bcdbacked No70c5,100$3,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5245554.5%30 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2c0…46ebbacked Yes10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bc9…7361backed Yes1c4,952$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60832.4%2 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a55…cfc4backed No70c4,600$3,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,374.595156.9%29 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+34%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb49…a376backed No71c4,533$3,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,307.624845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ed3…aa68backed No63c4,508$2,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,654.61757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4648…fc9fbacked Yes16c4,101$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.57018.6%13 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ed3…f647backed Yes1c4,053$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No78c3,946$3,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.155869%40 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9419…a40fbacked Yes8c3,922$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.5460%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9823…40b9backed Yes12c3,295$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40090%0 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes7c3,027$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2225034%17 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x249b…5df1backed Yes25c2,894$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.537619.7%15 W · 61 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,827$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.851,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d4f…fda5backed Yes31c2,734$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.412123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-49.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc951…7adcbacked Yes1c2,726$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.84414.9%2 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-85.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6aa…a40cbacked Yes2c2,683$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2480%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0020…0d22backed Yes36c2,674$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.641127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes5c2,500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125541.9%1 W · 53 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick7cpaid-69.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5426…1339backed Yes18c2,279$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400290%0 W · 29 L-6.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6f9f…6c07backed Yes7c2,093$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14090%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd69…0986backed Yes16c1,875$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-85%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e81…8406backed Yes6c1,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.022213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-75.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x71c3…61ebbacked No79c1,653$1,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.091464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a6e…c575backed Yes22c1,611$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.5550%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd33…cf51backed No78c1,498$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.564165.9%27 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75e9…fc9fbacked Yes9c1,392$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.737423%17 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67b8…2449backed No78c1,282$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.052850%14 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcca0…3738backed Yes39c1,282$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+73.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a0a…71b8backed Yes1c1,264$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c8b…1614backed No78c1,263$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.741346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-35.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e3c…a02abacked Yes6c1,250$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19d7…2d0abacked Yes18c1,215$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes16c1,118$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.773625%9 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+86.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed No76c1,061$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.6119439.2%76 W · 118 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58b3…b0d2backed No65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3503100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfeb5…a393backed No74c869$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.9416761.7%103 W · 64 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes13c848.62$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.94205%1 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.21per pick26cpaid-90.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8a95…bb94backed Yes12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc4a…104fbacked Yes37c800.84$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003250%16 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked Yes20c750$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150432.3%1 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick15cpaid-96.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0f71…912dbacked Yes11c721.45$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.36695.8%4 W · 65 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa366…54efbacked No75c700$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17515754.8%86 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e07…efe0backed Yes4c680.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.19320%0 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ba3…9cabbacked Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa740…ee18backed Yes26c500$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5478.5%4 W · 43 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-85.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6b6…af8bbacked No79c500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10514075.7%106 W · 34 L+17.6wins+0.13per pick63cpaid+22.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf7ee…9930backed Yes19c500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb835…df41backed Yes4c457$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x609a…a4d7backed Yes19c399.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa7…01bdbacked No77c390$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.71457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3b2…5fc6backed Yes8c375$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde7a…2966backed Yes35c365.6$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.6260%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x25e2…cd7fbacked Yes24c333.33$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a59…8e5cbacked No78c307.65$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.11866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22a9…2d50backed No77c306.76$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.92860.7%17 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick73cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x578f…f112backed No62c299.99$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1145756.1%32 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9514…9017backed No76c263.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.16560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46a1…2736backed No79c250$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.53969.2%27 W · 12 L+6.7wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+48.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed No79c250$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.55971.2%42 W · 17 L+11.1wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+28.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x7ce8…767bbacked Yes25c232.38$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.422142.9%9 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4489…2452backed Yes36c230$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56d6…c255backed No72c220$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.61668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes13c201$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7464812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x06d0…059abacked No79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b5f…3269backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9af2…b14ebacked No72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc355…8a90backed No77c193.22$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.441181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick60cpaid+46.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f6d…3335backed Yes11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c3a…072cbacked No67c180.02$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.02666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ed4…6470backed Yes28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc654…3126backed Yes6c170.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb5f…ba7dbacked Yes6c167.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8db…243dbacked Yes10c160$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.245115.7%8 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-38.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72b0…8c07backed Yes13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.