Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fe28ac4aee597a761ce00692605e9b8701a544365eb781ddb7453fb10ae31fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,203,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,047,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,203,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 442 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 19c | 131,100$25,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,314.39 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 21c | 58,482$12,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,242.99 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94cc…5a2cbacked Yes | 2c | 47,718$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9017…b286backed Yes | 56c | 39,218$21,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,962.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e11…fddcbacked No | 44c | 39,218$17,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,962.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 14c | 36,574$5,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,074.6 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes | 17c | 30,312$5,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,088.78 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc139…2fabbacked Yes | 65c | 29,140$18,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,941 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe841…d8a4backed No | 35c | 29,140$10,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,941 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3674…a1f7backed Yes | 5c | 23,038$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 17c | 20,000$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 14c | 16,755$2,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,324 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…a0efbacked Yes | 15c | 14,144$2,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,121.65 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes | 17c | 13,006$2,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150.71 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 17c | 12,003$2,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,082.5 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7720…da92backed Yes | 30c | 11,043$3,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,331.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8a…3ec2backed Yes | 4c | 10,931$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes | 2c | 10,596$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.41 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 20c | 9,549$1,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,888.11 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff49…2f07backed Yes | 1c | 9,189$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 7c | 9,016$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.88 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 16c | 9,000$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.06 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes | 24c | 8,050$1,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,907.62 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 36c | 7,586$2,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,758.14 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…8d43backed Yes | 26c | 7,500$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes | 3c | 7,321$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab1…7df3backed No | 74c | 7,175$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,875.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 25c | 6,646$1,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,664.09 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…8330backed Yes | 26c | 6,566$1,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,704.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked Yes | 19c | 5,691$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.28 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…9de7backed Yes | 2c | 5,624$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.57 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +9.5wins | +0.24per pick | 12cpaid | +185%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 1c | 5,555$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 78c | 5,424$4,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.8 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed Yes | 23c | 5,000$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.04 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 45c | 3,931$1,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,766.26 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 11c | 3,899$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.89 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 14c | 3,706$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.49 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 2c | 3,333$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…1698backed Yes | 33c | 3,051$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.29 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…fc5bbacked No | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 19c | 2,948$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.73 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 39c | 2,877$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.71 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 26c | 2,767$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.8 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x597e…cd70backed Yes | 46c | 2,545$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,533$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…f919backed Yes | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 19c | 2,499$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.77 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 2,434$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.7 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 16c | 2,368$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.18 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 21c | 2,318$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.27 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…b1d4backed Yes | 44c | 2,283$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…de22backed Yes | 6c | 2,282$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.46 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed Yes | 17c | 2,200$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 13c | 2,120$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,103$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.67 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7662…7930backed Yes | 40c | 2,063$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.66 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 60c | 2,034$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.9 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x385b…40e5backed Yes | 25c | 2,026$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…9ff2backed Yes | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.98 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,903$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ee…f0d1backed Yes | 3c | 1,875$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe119…e30fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,875$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 29c | 1,760$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.55 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…1240backed Yes | 20c | 1,705$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8e…d6ecbacked Yes | 24c | 1,670$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,654$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,647$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9881…446fbacked Yes | 53c | 1,647$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed Yes | 24c | 1,625$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.69 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40d…1474backed Yes | 42c | 1,612$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,593$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.6 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 1,567$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e74…54e7backed Yes | 13c | 1,561$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.32 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 51c | 1,558$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.19 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…819ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,527$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked No | 52c | 1,512$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.55 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,492$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.75 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…eeaabacked Yes | 49c | 1,428$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,410$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.95 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,323$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Yes | 18c | 1,311$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.24 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -8.3wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…48babacked Yes | 20c | 1,300$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.3 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 15cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…b92fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,271$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fb…9cf8backed Yes | 40c | 1,261$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 25c | 1,255$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,250$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yes | 9c | 1,242$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.05 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ad…08afbacked Yes | 2c | 1,215$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 46c | 1,200$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.73 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…d0d3backed Yes | 46c | 1,171$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.83 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 33c | 1,164$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.32 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…1b3ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,128$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.23 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f4…e93dbacked No | 76c | 1,128$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 23c | 1,111$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.53 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed Yes | 54c | 1,110$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 3c | 1,110$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating hit 20% in 2025?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating hit 25% in 2025?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2025?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.