TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$377,049
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$392,781

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $377,049 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0132…dfdabacked Yes33c52,776$17,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,416.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1e4…b63bbacked No67c52,776$35,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,416.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7094…c818backed Yes29c51,302$14,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,877.58425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb7…d83abacked No71c51,302$36,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,877.583100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23b1…7b97backed Yes6c20,542$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes2c6,827$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.9633313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fd3…d54abacked Yes8c6,070$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-56.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64f6…1698backed Yes6c5,826$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.0470%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c3,828$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.491,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3b2…b92fbacked Yes1c3,248$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacb5…8330backed Yes4c2,566$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-82.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c6e…5884backed Yes4c2,222$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9810…f117backed Yes33c2,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed Yes4c1,705$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.764731.9%15 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6998…9ff2backed Yes8c1,700$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1361020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes3c1,649$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9711010%11 W · 99 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa2…36f6backed Yes4c1,348$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60120%0 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb626…2138backed Yes8c1,332$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.1460%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3703…76aabacked Yes8c1,271$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.3340%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d27…7cf5backed Yes7c1,200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick64cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0049…3a9abacked Yes4c1,127$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-85.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes5c1,110$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.288536.5%31 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes4c1,095$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.064320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes5c1,074$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50160%0 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5bd…7e75backed Yes4c1,026$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes10c999.44$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.712330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes8c926.5$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.521625%4 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffc5…4d99backed Yes4c926.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes4c768.16$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.55238.5%20 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes5c742.57$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.055514.5%8 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-58.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No73c705.28$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.4717850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9186…0666backed Yes5c658.91$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes27c534.81$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.6216725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3668…7f62backed Yes7c500.64$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a2…1b74backed Yes6c500$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.94714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-78.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed Yes31c500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1557051.4%36 W · 34 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x60ee…2dd6backed Yes7c499.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb684…b5b5backed Yes6c490.61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e66…86a3backed Yes4c477.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x211f…56f6backed Yes5c437.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x431d…8fdebacked No66c359.83$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.342100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+184.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3157…3234backed Yes4c350$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.59742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc99c…f913backed Yes6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4afb…7a44backed Yes6c325.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90c6…5390backed Yes31c320.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+45.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x084b…fdeebacked Yes7c305.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf501…8852backed Yes33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick46cpaid-68.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd9b1…5614backed No67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bda…7b64backed Yes34c297.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c293.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5396319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fc1…13aabacked Yes8c286.54$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.561353.8%7 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.30per pick23cpaid+211.8%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xb40d…1474backed Yes14c276.33$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382035%7 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x981d…0741backed Yes8c261.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-63.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes5c251.34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.12728.3%6 W · 66 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb34…2423backed Yes34c248.41$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.462744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-26.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf40c…a528backed Yes8c247.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ae…004ebacked Yes10c200.11$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.41414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-48.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66bf…db18backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes32c192.26$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.677250%36 W · 36 L+6.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x375e…73adbacked Yes6c177.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x033e…0e3fbacked Yes34c174.29$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x169b…30c9backed Yes32c169.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.43066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x874e…03b1backed Yes10c167.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49ad…2f30backed Yes9c167.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No57c161.71$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.414935.6%53 W · 96 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xada4…48babacked Yes7c160.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.74214.8%1 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick15cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fd5…ac11backed Yes34c147$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.98450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c4…3797backed No69c145.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.582147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7313…cbbcbacked No66c132$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.082955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+38.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-74.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42f9…ef3ebacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-64.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f8c…2bb3backed Yes32c121.88$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cab…7222backed Yes34c117.65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403525.7%9 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78cf…77e6backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+45.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2139522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc72…6fc1backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6ec…1dadbacked No74c78$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.545961%36 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7141…de63backed Yes34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf385…4864backed No75c53.95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.65054%27 W · 23 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No56c50.64$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2316535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes33c49.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7517544.6%78 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba90…99b9backed Yes34c44.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e9…ee46backed No71c42.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.25922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick51cpaid-70.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x87cd…6f2abacked No70c42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.816058.3%35 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes33c38.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7515332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No69c32.15$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0310244.1%45 W · 57 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.21,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xef70…339fbacked Yes38c29.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-67.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1844…1d55backed No68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.416100%6 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+45.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c71…14a4backed No65c29.23$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.237753.2%41 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea2…b797backed No62c29.03$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.034858.3%28 W · 20 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.831840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed No69c15.38$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7713167.9%89 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.