TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9186…0666

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
89
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 52 out of 100; worst Lol at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT6830.9%21 W · 47 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 68 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$660Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+516.6%+$3,409.55
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$647Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$646.89
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$655Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$655
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,330Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,330
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+209%+$62.69
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$649Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$649.42
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$568Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$567.7
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$85.38
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$53.33
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$77.14
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$39.77
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$77.14
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Showing 25 of 68 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST1216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-64.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$140
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+167.9%+$159.55
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+61.6%+$62.19
All 12 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-68.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Lol — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+132.9%+$146.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.31
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$35
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.