TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,858,749
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,926,903

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,858,749 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,265 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7225…659abacked Yes67c1,120,084$754,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365,405.542846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed No30c537,288$163,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163,798.6374752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed No45c460,875$206,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206,808.742,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No34c374,095$128,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128,264.834,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1c5…cbd0backed Yes40c370,097$148,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222,058.142548%12 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed No61c210,934$129,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129,011.8429952.5%157 W · 142 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10a6…4d8bbacked Yes43c193,117$83,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109,124.7364446.4%299 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf031…c80cbacked No57c130,604$74,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,444.2333538.2%128 W · 207 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked No33c117,430$39,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,265.721,22443.4%531 W · 693 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No30c106,887$31,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,786.341,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b89…4244backed Yes72c100,087$72,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,027.7717550.3%88 W · 87 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed No60c78,705$47,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,22322139.8%88 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes42c72,558$30,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,372.582,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Yes60c66,665$39,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,943.8142345.6%193 W · 230 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No35c63,176$22,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,187.353,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked No42c60,000$25,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,199.9638734.4%133 W · 254 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Yes29c59,826$17,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,312.066847.1%32 W · 36 L+7.7wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+20.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed No38c53,301$20,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,432.9924441.8%102 W · 142 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94e4…87e0backed Yes43c46,512$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,511.635523.6%13 W · 42 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03cf…7260backed No49c42,171$20,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,719.916627.3%18 W · 48 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-45.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfaa2…e80abacked No60c41,629$24,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,977.2613959.7%83 W · 56 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes42c35,000$14,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,299.9627039.6%107 W · 163 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac47…d234backed No60c34,661$20,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,796.6821029%61 W · 149 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c7…c83bbacked Yes40c30,707$12,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,424.436448.4%31 W · 33 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a2a…1fcabacked Yes42c30,699$12,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,805.618048.8%39 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked No8c23,947$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.4749441.5%205 W · 289 L+27.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b57…95e1backed Yes75c23,000$17,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,679.993865.8%25 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6550…8451backed No37c21,534$7,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,953.1521738.7%84 W · 133 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes63c20,213$12,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,534.258,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x514b…5fa9backed No58c19,500$11,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,324.997538.7%29 W · 46 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed No59c19,230$11,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,345.899247.8%44 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Yes65c17,768$11,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,218.761172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Yes40c17,500$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,5009839.8%39 W · 59 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked No32c15,448$4,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,972.5331945.5%145 W · 174 L-0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd881…af24backed Yes43c13,394$5,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,634.6922450.4%113 W · 111 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2fc…b1b4backed Yes77c12,138$9,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,753.9536634.4%126 W · 240 L-24.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-38.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No59c11,656$6,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,908.461,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Yes43c11,621$4,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,623.7310457.7%60 W · 44 L+10.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Yes30c10,382$3,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,239.164553.3%24 W · 21 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+25.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No36c9,402$3,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,368.452,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1518…2652backed No60c8,340$5,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0041457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7391…5375backed Yes60c8,338$5,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,302.5419938.2%76 W · 123 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No67c8,170$5,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,450.5276048.7%370 W · 390 L-2.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked No57c8,073$4,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,601.6170244.6%313 W · 389 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed No60c8,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,80036250.8%184 W · 178 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf742…e039backed Yes49c8,000$3,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,08026447.7%126 W · 138 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed No8c7,797$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.943,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed No60c7,721$4,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,632.326842.6%29 W · 39 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked No59c7,500$4,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,45547144.8%211 W · 260 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed No20c7,350$1,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,436.942,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked No60c6,827$4,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,094.252,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Yes41c6,745$2,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,950.572,80555.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L+70.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked No37c6,732$2,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,498.7333337.8%126 W · 207 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-40.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes69c6,607$4,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,031.8921141.7%88 W · 123 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked No60c6,500$3,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,88547643.3%206 W · 270 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…e7a9backed No59c5,600$3,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,32444144%194 W · 247 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c99…809cbacked No24c5,534$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,328.22580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49c8…3c52backed No61c5,211$3,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,159.575750.9%29 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed No42c5,137$2,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,150.5442043.1%181 W · 239 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fae…4079backed Yes41c5,132$2,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,028.026833.8%23 W · 45 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe987…f0e1backed No59c5,000$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,95038026.6%101 W · 279 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed Yes58c5,000$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,10012556.8%71 W · 54 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed No60c5,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00024144.8%108 W · 133 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd8…7749backed Yes41c4,878$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,878.0516041.3%66 W · 94 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No60c4,828$2,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,886.211,56043.8%684 W · 876 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed No60c4,720$2,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,831.7236939.6%146 W · 223 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb6e…78e0backed Yes38c4,559$1,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,827.98560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+113.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes33c4,539$1,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,044.5888838.2%339 W · 549 L+37.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8987…02f3backed No57c4,486$2,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,557.1814342.7%61 W · 82 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ed…4418backed Yes44c4,435$1,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,483.8712428.2%35 W · 89 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked No18c4,025$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.8130117.9%54 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed No59c4,000$2,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,37048441.9%203 W · 281 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x005c…a987backed No57c4,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,28017235.5%61 W · 111 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53c4…740bbacked Yes41c4,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,349.991723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-60.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked Yes76c3,947$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.376261.3%38 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2106…4deabacked No57c3,913$2,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,221.1518843.6%82 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked No64c3,891$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.531,94542.7%831 W · 1,114 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0e…2a0ebacked No58c3,798$2,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20334247.7%163 W · 179 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No35c3,773$1,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,311.2545039.6%178 W · 272 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No30c3,622$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.0669534.8%242 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed Yes41c3,500$1,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0656349.2%31 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked No60c3,500$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10059752.1%311 W · 286 L-2.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb87b…3626backed Yes41c3,500$1,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,06524526.5%65 W · 180 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes64c3,451$2,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,243.064,02738.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L-26.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e9…67ffbacked Yes41c3,435$1,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,043.063865.8%25 W · 13 L+4.9wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+17.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6304…c7e5backed Yes73c3,405$2,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.365630.4%17 W · 39 L-7.5wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-49.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed No59c3,000$1,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,75550243.4%218 W · 284 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Yes42c3,000$1,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7559266.3%61 W · 31 L+13.3wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+26.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x764f…64a1backed No66c2,835$1,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,868.0617732.2%57 W · 120 L+0.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e6b…8a98backed Yes43c2,801$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,601.6634455.5%191 W · 153 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed No60c2,800$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,68038351.4%197 W · 186 L-1.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked No28c2,781$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.032,97328%831 W · 2,142 L-132.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20e5…118dbacked No58c2,679$1,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,551.2633549%164 W · 171 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7fb…e5fdbacked Yes36c2,635$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,686.2111256.3%63 W · 49 L+9.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x56f0…da35backed Yes41c2,568$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,517.288262.2%51 W · 31 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes41c2,500$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47531152.7%164 W · 147 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8712…d4c1backed No25c2,483$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.61030%3 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed Yes41c2,439$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.0210356.3%58 W · 45 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1016…b09bbacked Yes41c2,439$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.0224341.2%100 W · 143 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Yes42c2,435$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.879036.7%33 W · 57 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.