Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x691a596c894b4742167158f873a7443e6bf9b4f584fc9c6a8c91abec12b182d6

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $252,884
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $244,878

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $252,884 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 459 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa69d…509bbacked Yes	35c	28,000$9,799 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,799.01	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a9…1652backed No	64c	17,389$11,201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,187.76	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-22%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	55c	9,824$5,384 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,439.23	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05f0…2469backed No	57c	9,361$5,313 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,047.96	129	45%58 W · 71 L	+7.5wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked No	60c	6,834$4,134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,699.83	40	50%20 W · 20 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+62.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd58…18f9backed No	58c	6,737$3,907 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,829.54	73	37%27 W · 46 L	-7.6wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd9ff…79dcbacked Yes	53c	6,607$3,474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,474	138	43.5%60 W · 78 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf3d…17a7backed Yes	29c	5,536$1,631 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,630.76	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	41cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	39c	5,206$2,035 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,035.14	792	31.1%246 W · 546 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes	28c	5,000$1,425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,425	72	41.7%30 W · 42 L	+4.9wins	+0.07per pick	35cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Yes	42c	4,770$2,003 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,003.38	102	36.3%37 W · 65 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x426f…4615backed Yes	32c	4,688$1,490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,489.69	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	23cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x711b…bcecbacked No	73c	4,420$3,217 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,202.91	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	67cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	40c	4,368$1,764 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,764.15	221	25.8%57 W · 164 L	-10.0wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd604…cb5fbacked No	72c	4,000$2,880 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,119.99	335	55.5%186 W · 149 L	+19.0wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d01…27cbbacked Yes	55c	3,767$2,078 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,078.42	176	36.4%64 W · 112 L	+10.8wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	+35.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No	51c	3,648$1,871 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,776.34	326	29.1%95 W · 231 L	+14.5wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d08…0a33backed Yes	38c	3,546$1,332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,331.89	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	57c	3,438$1,951 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,487.15	438	35.8%157 W · 281 L	-10.3wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked No	55c	3,113$1,708 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,405.01	707	50.1%354 W · 353 L	+25.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed No	69c	3,000$2,077 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$922.4	269	40.9%110 W · 159 L	+7.8wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No	66c	2,877$1,907 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$969.7	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked Yes	42c	2,811$1,173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,172.53	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No	43c	2,742$1,179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,562.76	263	30%79 W · 184 L	+12.6wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9186…0666backed Yes	50c	2,661$1,330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,330	68	30.9%21 W · 47 L	-3.3wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No	72c	2,629$1,883 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$746.19	116	37.9%44 W · 72 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed No	58c	2,491$1,450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,041.47	472	35%165 W · 307 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35dc…b9efbacked Yes	42c	2,387$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No	65c	2,349$1,533 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$815.97	222	42.8%95 W · 127 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No	68c	2,152$1,469 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$683.02	185	45.9%85 W · 100 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf5a…bf0abacked Yes	6c	2,120$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.6	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.15per pick	25cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	29c	2,000$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$580	283	37.1%105 W · 178 L	-9.2wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad10…b35cbacked No	72c	2,000$1,440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$559.99	34	26.5%9 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+114.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked No	58c	1,984$1,142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$842.63	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed No	58c	1,901$1,104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$797.33	350	33.7%118 W · 232 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe873…9dd8backed Yes	14c	1,899$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.09	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4377…74c2backed Yes	28c	1,738$487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$486.53	52	42.3%22 W · 30 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x255e…5456backed Yes	42c	1,695$710 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$710	60	55%33 W · 27 L	+6.0wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf410…ca73backed No	57c	1,620$926 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$694.16	116	37.1%43 W · 73 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed No	72c	1,599$1,151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$447.72	169	46.2%78 W · 91 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd060…ce4fbacked Yes	42c	1,555$657 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$657	158	36.7%58 W · 100 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf595…bfb5backed Yes	32c	1,543$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	107	36.4%39 W · 68 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0b…c5ffbacked Yes	33c	1,531$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	191	50.3%96 W · 95 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed No	71c	1,509$1,077 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$432.58	123	52.8%65 W · 58 L	+11.3wins	+0.09per pick	44cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked No	55c	1,500$820 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$679.98	60	31.7%19 W · 41 L	+5.0wins	+0.08per pick	23cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No	65c	1,448$946 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$501.71	57	33.3%19 W · 38 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bf8…03b2backed Yes	36c	1,383$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.25	165	52.1%86 W · 79 L	+6.1wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	0%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed No	53c	1,362$724 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$638.28	269	49.1%132 W · 137 L	+14.1wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c5d…6fcabacked Yes	31c	1,291$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-2.4wins	-0.11per pick	38cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc2d…7108backed Yes	40c	1,250$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	141	37.6%53 W · 88 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No	56c	1,205$675 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$530.21	1,075	45.2%486 W · 589 L	+41.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	26c	1,200$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.86	212	39.6%84 W · 128 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd31…1252backed Yes	43c	1,155$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	194	11.9%23 W · 171 L	-6.6wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed No	59c	1,127$661 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$465.96	287	31%89 W · 198 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf643…ef25backed Yes	30c	1,100$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x62d5…bc0cbacked Yes	48c	1,048$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500.04	206	54.4%112 W · 94 L	+13.9wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3814…17bcbacked Yes	49c	1,027$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	41cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	21c	1,022$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.37	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x89fc…b5c2backed No	58c	1,011$586 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$425.37	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No	59c	1,006$589 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$417.1	157	40.8%64 W · 93 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x84f8…d348backed Yes	49c	1,005$492 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$492.4	15	80%12 W · 3 L	+2.4wins	+0.16per pick	64cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes	29c	999.99$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290	169	27.8%47 W · 122 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-31%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47fb…74d6backed Yes	28c	999.99$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	55	18.2%10 W · 45 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0711…1c1cbacked Yes	41c	990.9$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$407.36	100	42%42 W · 58 L	+4.2wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+24.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No	58c	971.05$559 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$412.35	181	39.8%72 W · 109 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked No	57c	945.91$539 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$406.74	165	64.2%106 W · 59 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No	50c	909.64$451 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$459.02	802	25.7%206 W · 596 L	-6.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59e5…7a2bbacked No	73c	864.05$631 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$233.29	82	58.5%48 W · 34 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c2…3048backed No	51c	853.53$435 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$418.23	191	48.2%92 W · 99 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3341…d7e4backed Yes	42c	852.02$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.4	84	31%26 W · 58 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9572…efffbacked Yes	30c	850$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.5	87	42.5%37 W · 50 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55e2…5fc9backed No	60c	842.57$506 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$337.03	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	29cpaid	+62.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eec…c524backed No	57c	839.08$479 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$360.36	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2937…ad07backed Yes	32c	782.03$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	56	48.2%27 W · 29 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30d5…f0c8backed Yes	28c	769.13$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.54	81	40.7%33 W · 48 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4471…19ffbacked Yes	30c	757.89$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.16	71	45.1%32 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed No	73c	730$533 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.1	81	34.6%28 W · 53 L	-7.5wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa7f1…b052backed Yes	39c	728.57$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.9	159	30.2%48 W · 111 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	+44.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No	57c	724$411 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$313.13	228	34.6%79 W · 149 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e7b…8767backed No	45c	716.83$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$396.34	110	58.2%64 W · 46 L	+13.1wins	+0.12per pick	46cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No	63c	710.87$446 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265.22	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No	69c	669.09$463 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205.76	100	41%41 W · 59 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe857…7b3bbacked Yes	30c	668$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	59	32.2%19 W · 40 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eec…6b3dbacked No	60c	663.64$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$263.64	115	53%61 W · 54 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	11c	662.99$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.93	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea2…de87backed Yes	27c	656.41$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.23	123	20.3%25 W · 98 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x410b…0152backed Yes	46c	652.17$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	167	31.1%52 W · 115 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ce…6509backed Yes	31c	647.11$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	111	62.2%69 W · 42 L	+16.7wins	+0.15per pick	47cpaid	+27%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x5a0d…40cabacked No	74c	638.11$471 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.11	31	71%22 W · 9 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	64cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8896…aad6backed Yes	41c	617.45$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0287…97b5backed Yes	49c	616.69$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-3.1wins	-0.12per pick	30cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf408…f628backed Yes	31c	614.2$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.78	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+2.4wins	+0.14per pick	51cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Yes	28c	600$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	114	53.5%61 W · 53 L	+6.3wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdcab…3012backed Yes	32c	597.82$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.69	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b60…85e0backed Yes	42c	595.24$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	83	41%34 W · 49 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb8a…45aabacked Yes	60c	585.5$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	26	50%13 W · 13 L	-3.6wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7d16…f032backed Yes	42c	573.57$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	56	39.3%22 W · 34 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No	69c	567.04$391 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176.17	341	51%174 W · 167 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No	57c	557.14$315 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$242	167	41.9%70 W · 97 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb63…f6a4backed Yes	42c	547.62$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	53	34%18 W · 35 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 48 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event