Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b3cf0bdde59432429e958fc16b02be329bf964dcfd41d510249889e07a4d1ad

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $71,700
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $65,868

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,700 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1467…4372backed Yes	27c	20,000$5,340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,339.99	43	41.9%18 W · 25 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9106…afcbbacked No	73c	16,893$12,383 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,510.31	86	60.5%52 W · 34 L	+7.5wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	6c	10,160$609 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$609.11	218	37.2%81 W · 137 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ab3…f88ebacked Yes	31c	6,428$2,010 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,010	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05f0…2469backed Yes	11c	3,400$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374	129	45%58 W · 71 L	+7.5wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes	26c	2,041$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521.14	169	27.8%47 W · 122 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-31%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed Yes	25c	2,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	132	40.2%53 W · 79 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd97…0ec5backed No	75c	1,728$1,294 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$434.22	96	47.9%46 W · 50 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0b…c5ffbacked Yes	27c	1,460$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	191	50.3%96 W · 95 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	1,363$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.49	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x289f…d014backed No	76c	1,323$1,003 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$320.3	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+3.0wins	+0.10per pick	48cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	71c	1,028$726 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$302.35	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	26c	811.29$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.33	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed No	73c	782.97$575 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.37	123	52.8%65 W · 58 L	+11.3wins	+0.09per pick	44cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8cc1…560bbacked No	73c	775$568 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$206.93	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked No	69c	720.93$497 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$223.49	589	26.8%158 W · 431 L	-30.5wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	8c	616.06$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.9	438	35.8%157 W · 281 L	-10.3wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0121…f722backed Yes	34c	498.16$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.46	236	44.9%106 W · 130 L	+11.7wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No	74c	442.25$327 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.25	100	41%41 W · 59 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f54…b1abbacked Yes	38c	433.08$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.62	99	38.4%38 W · 61 L	-4.3wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes	17c	430.85$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.21	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04a5…28d6backed Yes	28c	359.51$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae07…20aebacked Yes	28c	353.8$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.84	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	25c	344.5$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.45	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No	69c	344.01$239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.15	154	45.5%70 W · 84 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac25…147abacked Yes	30c	333.5$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	180	43.9%79 W · 101 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a7c…3016backed Yes	16c	317.65$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	-6.7wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e83…3bb7backed Yes	26c	305.94$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.99	1,206	32.7%394 W · 812 L	-8.0wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf79c…cb96backed Yes	24c	303.62$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.73	920	38.5%354 W · 566 L	-21.8wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x624b…56f8backed Yes	19c	300.56$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.11	51	25.5%13 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed No	70c	293.44$205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.06	269	40.9%110 W · 159 L	+7.8wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4840…584ebacked No	73c	273$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.13	20	65%13 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cef…2c8dbacked Yes	25c	232.95$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.24	434	60.4%262 W · 172 L	+33.5wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f8d…1a96backed No	68c	228.44$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.22	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.21per pick	62cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes	24c	228.23$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.76	147	15.6%23 W · 124 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes	25c	212.9$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.75	24	62.5%15 W · 9 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No	75c	208.1$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.82	116	37.9%44 W · 72 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf474…5f86backed No	75c	200$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.2	44	34.1%15 W · 29 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc711…d3c6backed No	73c	199.78$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.78	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No	74c	161.9$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.4	427	37.2%159 W · 268 L	-15.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No	70c	150$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.6	167	41.9%70 W · 97 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed No	73c	150$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.5	572	52.4%300 W · 272 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x587b…2622backed No	75c	143.04$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.76	259	54.8%142 W · 117 L	+17.3wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Yes	37c	120.87$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	97	64.9%63 W · 34 L	+4.9wins	+0.05per pick	60cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf96b…9c4cbacked Yes	25c	113.67$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.42	205	53.7%110 W · 95 L	+21.6wins	+0.11per pick	43cpaid	+25%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x68cc…78e0backed Yes	28c	112.2$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.97	215	17.2%37 W · 178 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1769…974ebacked Yes	28c	108.21$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	45	37.8%17 W · 28 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked No	75c	103.94$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.93	221	25.8%57 W · 164 L	-10.0wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No	73c	100$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.9	222	42.8%95 W · 127 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6868…24f0backed No	76c	99.95$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.9	184	43.5%80 W · 104 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbada…d874backed No	70c	97.15$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.34	94	55.3%52 W · 42 L	+6.5wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes	26c	95$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.89	707	50.1%354 W · 353 L	+25.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde3f…aa05backed Yes	40c	93.28$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d32…98c6backed No	74c	77.28$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.39	60	40%24 W · 36 L	+2.9wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4db7…1cabbacked Yes	26c	77.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	88	35.2%31 W · 57 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc99c…62aebacked Yes	26c	75.76$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	279	40.5%113 W · 166 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c12…1200backed Yes	28c	72.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4890…228fbacked Yes	29c	69.06$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.23per pick	49cpaid	+92%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	69c	63.04$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.24	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab1…ca7abacked No	73c	54.57$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.57	100	37%37 W · 63 L	-3.7wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90a7…5ac0backed Yes	28c	50$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	225	43.1%97 W · 128 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a1d…8986backed Yes	28c	49.56$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.77	984	39.2%386 W · 598 L	+8.7wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6835…3c15backed Yes	25c	43.24$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No	56c	34.32$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.1	326	29.1%95 W · 231 L	+14.5wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3c5…f095backed No	73c	34.27$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.27	138	60.9%84 W · 54 L	-7.0wins	-0.05per pick	66cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9163…0cabbacked No	71c	30$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.67	238	55.5%132 W · 106 L	+10.2wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No	74c	17.19$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.45	185	45.9%85 W · 100 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No	72c	16.85$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.73	205	61%125 W · 80 L	+7.8wins	+0.04per pick	57cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbd…d0dfbacked No	70c	16.68$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.09	249	47.4%118 W · 131 L	+14.2wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x59c9…567fbacked No	73c	14.26$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.92	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.10per pick	71cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 48 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event