Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc22a608cad0da06666df135c51f006f5491e4bd425f333b6cd35cb09e3591a87

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $297,710
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $300,003

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $297,710 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 289 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5a21…9318backed No	27c	11,373$3,046 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,326.76	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46eb…ba8cbacked Yes	6c	11,000$670 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$669.94	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+2.7wins	+0.23per pick	27cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No	28c	8,727$2,436 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,291.19	157	40.8%64 W · 93 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8135…24fdbacked Yes	78c	7,973$6,226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,226	73	46.6%34 W · 39 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0121…f722backed No	35c	6,851$2,392 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,459.11	236	44.9%106 W · 130 L	+11.7wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd896…9815backed No	48c	6,759$3,251 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,508.2	40	40%16 W · 24 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-31%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No	14c	6,640$956 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,683.65	326	29.1%95 W · 231 L	+14.5wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes	33c	6,256$2,092 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,091.89	116	37.9%44 W · 72 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	19c	6,215$1,178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,036.92	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No	30c	6,187$1,843 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,344.22	341	51%174 W · 167 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	75c	5,651$4,241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,241.37	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed Yes	70c	5,000$3,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,499.99	241	44.8%108 W · 133 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ac0…6112backed Yes	4c	4,887$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.45	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-12%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf505…4c26backed No	31c	4,729$1,461 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,267.71	65	44.6%29 W · 36 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed No	25c	4,602$1,157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,445.02	464	64.9%301 W · 163 L	+26.6wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x24ae…4c80backed Yes	26c	4,443$1,165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,165.19	148	56.8%84 W · 64 L	+20.7wins	+0.14per pick	43cpaid	+59.5%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x68d2…d067backed Yes	76c	3,974$3,006 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,006	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x110c…4c80backed Yes	75c	3,931$2,947 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,947.5	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	71cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed No	15c	3,660$549 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,111.3	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+35.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2320…4869backed Yes	71c	3,427$2,416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,416	18	83.3%15 W · 3 L	+2.7wins	+0.15per pick	68cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked No	36c	3,232$1,179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,052.88	229	59.4%136 W · 93 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x05f0…2469backed No	28c	3,016$843 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,172.88	129	45%58 W · 71 L	+7.5wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8fe…3ee3backed No	18c	3,004$549 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,455.4	20	40%8 W · 12 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4805…6c7bbacked No	20c	3,001$590 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,410.31	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+2.7wins	+0.15per pick	29cpaid	+68.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6c8…b9e6backed Yes	80c	3,000$2,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,400	218	37.6%82 W · 136 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed No	17c	2,966$506 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,460.02	269	40.9%110 W · 159 L	+7.8wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7528…4e36backed Yes	70c	2,900$2,030 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,030	67	43.3%29 W · 38 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc098…95bbbacked Yes	70c	2,713$1,895 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,894.71	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.41per pick	74cpaid	-57%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked No	19c	2,588$504 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,084.22	188	48.9%92 W · 96 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb82b…fc60backed No	14c	2,472$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,122.07	76	43.4%33 W · 43 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb00…7fe9backed No	15c	2,394$351 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,042.57	46	52.2%24 W · 22 L	+3.5wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+17%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked No	22c	2,269$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,768.66	436	35.8%156 W · 280 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed No	13c	2,246$295 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,951.85	2,380	53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L	+76.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No	23c	2,230$508 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,721.64	1,075	45.2%486 W · 589 L	+41.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x478f…f5d9backed No	28c	2,125$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,524.72	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	-4.7wins	-0.15per pick	37cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x89f7…1ec0backed Yes	71c	2,095$1,493 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,493.45	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	75cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed No	24c	2,087$496 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,591.71	472	35%165 W · 307 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	54c	1,943$1,049 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,049.07	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No	11c	1,823$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,623.04	52	19.2%10 W · 42 L	+3.5wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b9a…12a5backed Yes	76c	1,758$1,334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,334.43	75	58.7%44 W · 31 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+76.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…f0fbbacked Yes	65c	1,750$1,134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,133.92	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+2.5wins	+0.12per pick	40cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed No	14c	1,704$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,469.1	3,731	51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L	+55.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bf8…03b2backed Yes	75c	1,590$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200	165	52.1%86 W · 79 L	+6.1wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	0%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes	75c	1,527$1,147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,147.3	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked No	20c	1,509$302 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,207.12	40	50%20 W · 20 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+62.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x832b…5c91backed Yes	72c	1,500$1,080 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,080	41	43.9%18 W · 23 L	-3.3wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-17%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c85…ce0cbacked No	14c	1,500$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,290	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked No	29c	1,500$435 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,064.97	165	64.2%106 W · 59 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc4b…553bbacked Yes	71c	1,408$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	70cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed No	30c	1,400$420 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$979.99	383	51.4%197 W · 186 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	62c	1,397$865 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$865.32	221	25.8%57 W · 164 L	-10.0wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked No	14c	1,383$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,188.96	2,411	53%1,278 W · 1,133 L	+75.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No	16c	1,357$217 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,139.52	57	33.3%19 W · 38 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No	20c	1,350$270 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,080.3	185	45.9%85 W · 100 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked No	18c	1,325$233 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,091.41	455	36.9%168 W · 287 L	-26.9wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe8b…517cbacked Yes	78c	1,271$989 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$988.56	186	14.5%27 W · 159 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No	29c	1,262$366 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$896.11	778	45%350 W · 428 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5409…79dbbacked Yes	80c	1,254$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	47	63.8%30 W · 17 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	61cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0164…9ed6backed No	15c	1,200$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,019.98	197	23.4%46 W · 151 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+23.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6130…a7a6backed No	34c	1,123$382 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$741.08	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.23per pick	44cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No	28c	1,121$310 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$810.81	218	37.2%81 W · 137 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b45…077ebacked Yes	2c	1,038$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	131	45%59 W · 72 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x831a…d532backed No	7c	988.26$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$914.45	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0693…9679backed No	29c	935.59$273 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$662.6	226	33.6%76 W · 150 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4cb…63bebacked Yes	70c	900$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$630	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0343…f2dcbacked Yes	71c	805.16$572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$571.71	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x054d…27bfbacked No	18c	787.86$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$643.89	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Yes	66c	773.27$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510.36	77	44.2%34 W · 43 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed No	22c	769$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$602	67	61.2%41 W · 26 L	+6.0wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked No	40c	707.14$283 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$424.44	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed No	31c	691.09$214 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$476.85	350	33.7%118 W · 232 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfaa5…7cc9backed No	26c	666.16$174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$491.93	148	60.1%89 W · 59 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	40c	663.73$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.92	212	39.6%84 W · 128 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes	56c	662.59$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370	1,601	47.8%765 W · 836 L	+51.5wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes	35c	657.15$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.92	802	25.7%206 W · 596 L	-6.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed No	30c	640$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$448	354	51.4%182 W · 172 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5aa…fd4abacked Yes	70c	599.99$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+48.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No	16c	583.68$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$490.29	100	41%41 W · 59 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Yes	35c	565$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.05	586	42.8%251 W · 335 L	+17.8wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e0…43b9backed Yes	74c	555.17$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410	74	60.8%45 W · 29 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	59cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed No	27c	554.8$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$406.63	285	47.7%136 W · 149 L	-12.7wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-16%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Yes	74c	500$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370	87	47.1%41 W · 46 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc507…5d1ebacked Yes	72c	500$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	103	59.2%61 W · 42 L	+5.6wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x62d5…bc0cbacked No	20c	500$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$400	206	54.4%112 W · 94 L	+13.9wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc78a…fae0backed Yes	70c	500$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92fa…4461backed Yes	71c	492.96$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b14…3ca3backed Yes	59c	483.25$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.12	148	39.9%59 W · 89 L	-7.2wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x240d…1ff2backed Yes	45c	478.13$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217	64	45.3%29 W · 35 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked No	19c	476.58$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$386.58	88	44.3%39 W · 49 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Yes	52c	449.25$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.48	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6c3…61f0backed Yes	71c	422.89$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.7	52	55.8%29 W · 23 L	+3.9wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0016…fe14backed No	27c	422.58$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$308.78	42	38.1%16 W · 26 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0d8…0a00backed Yes	29c	417.65$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.77	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	44cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa0d…9ad2backed Yes	80c	400$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f00…7addbacked Yes	75c	400$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.8	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed No	46c	399.99$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$214	108	47.2%51 W · 57 L	-6.3wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a5f…dc31backed Yes	75c	399.27$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	31	71%22 W · 9 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	67cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No	31c	385.98$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$266.33	406	49.8%202 W · 204 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No	20c	375.93$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300.74	263	30%79 W · 184 L	+12.6wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked No	28c	333$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$239.91	171	38%65 W · 106 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 48 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event