Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e7cb09d39f30933eec25dee037b70b65f35c91e2bd0bbf9ee6b325f2807f206

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 30, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $50,567
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $51,101

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,567 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5a21…9318backed Yes	6c	6,294$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.07	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5cf…c503backed Yes	0c	3,397$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.01	56	30.4%17 W · 39 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	+42.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37c2…198cbacked Yes	35c	3,000$1,037 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,036.8	56	7.1%4 W · 52 L	-6.1wins	-0.11per pick	18cpaid	-74.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed Yes	11c	2,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	464	64.9%301 W · 163 L	+26.6wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9941…0b8dbacked Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	79	41.8%33 W · 46 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No	62c	1,905$1,174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$730.95	1,075	45.2%486 W · 589 L	+41.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked No	72c	1,464$1,054 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$409.64	71	26.8%19 W · 52 L	-4.8wins	-0.07per pick	34cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x78c1…473ebacked Yes	11c	1,212$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.32	513	15.6%80 W · 433 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd060…ce4fbacked Yes	40c	1,088$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439.96	158	36.7%58 W · 100 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x410c…7d2fbacked Yes	40c	1,010$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	58	55.2%32 W · 26 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae69…98b7backed Yes	12c	833.58$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	3c	800$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed No	65c	767.27$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$267.27	472	35%165 W · 307 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked No	66c	760.62$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260.62	436	35.8%156 W · 280 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x11e1…5621backed Yes	9c	709.84$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.64	136	35.3%48 W · 88 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked No	73c	706.28$518 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188.32	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes	12c	698.55$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.21	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5794…5ac6backed Yes	37c	674.48$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes	24c	672.79$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.4	350	33.7%118 W · 232 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed Yes	8c	650$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	648	50.6%328 W · 320 L	-13.5wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	7c	568.59$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.9	221	25.8%57 W · 164 L	-10.0wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No	72c	523.13$378 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145.62	120	46.7%56 W · 64 L	-11.5wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd449…450fbacked No	65c	503.7$328 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176	127	44.9%57 W · 70 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	151	49.7%75 W · 76 L	+13.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed No	77c	499.36$385 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.85	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x624b…56f8backed Yes	8c	439.89$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.04	51	25.5%13 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe92c…d27ebacked Yes	12c	416.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	176	64.8%114 W · 62 L	+11.5wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Yes	10c	399.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	63	28.6%18 W · 45 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	72c	383.1$277 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.99	438	35.8%157 W · 281 L	-10.3wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96ad…87afbacked Yes	37c	375.31$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.82	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes	12c	342$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.04	3,731	51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L	+55.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	11c	326.15$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.64	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	6c	302.47$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.1	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed Yes	11c	300$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	572	52.4%300 W · 272 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79f5…79c7backed Yes	34c	283.41$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	97	49.5%48 W · 49 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x11df…7068backed Yes	39c	282.56$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes	10c	259.45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.73	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Yes	32c	240$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.6	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xab2d…b1aabacked Yes	14c	222$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.32	165	40.6%67 W · 98 L	-7.7wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x651a…3da9backed Yes	20c	206$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.56	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1769…974ebacked Yes	18c	166.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	45	37.8%17 W · 28 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6024…9101backed Yes	37c	135.14$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.25per pick	41cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c8d…f822backed No	67c	135$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.55	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-4.5wins	-0.17per pick	31cpaid	-76.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1968…545fbacked Yes	12c	125$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0341…9294backed Yes	51c	119.19$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	494	26.7%132 W · 362 L	-9.8wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68cc…78e0backed Yes	13c	117.62$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.09	215	17.2%37 W · 178 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17f7…a181backed Yes	16c	105.31$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	38	31.6%12 W · 26 L	-3.8wins	-0.10per pick	42cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed No	58c	105.27$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.21	426	40.1%171 W · 255 L	-7.9wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe663…7d09backed Yes	36c	100$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f1b…aa6cbacked No	80c	98.75$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.75	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	-3.7wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb935…f417backed Yes	38c	93.16$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbcac…6621backed No	66c	92$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.28	52	25%13 W · 39 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44d9…22d8backed Yes	26c	91.31$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.95	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad7b…5c8dbacked No	78c	70$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.4	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.22per pick	78cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e7b…8767backed Yes	22c	70$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	110	58.2%64 W · 46 L	+13.1wins	+0.12per pick	46cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No	73c	64.06$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.36	512	50.4%258 W · 254 L	+31.5wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	36c	63.63$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.87	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5918…142bbacked Yes	30c	62.84$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb53…2860backed Yes	24c	50$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	48	33.3%16 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No	71c	49.36$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.55	198	74.7%148 W · 50 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	74cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa828…b6aebacked Yes	27c	46.44$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.54	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+2.8wins	+0.17per pick	45cpaid	+60.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed No	62c	46$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.48	88	42%37 W · 51 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed No	65c	42$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.7	254	43.7%111 W · 143 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb23…d5a9backed Yes	29c	40$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	101	43.6%44 W · 57 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a9…0c9abacked No	63c	40$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.8	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-31%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6eec…c524backed No	66c	33.93$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.54	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa712…982cbacked No	73c	30$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.1	152	53.3%81 W · 71 L	+7.3wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	37c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	1,686	20.6%347 W · 1,339 L	-28.4wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked No	65c	25$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.75	171	38%65 W · 106 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No	76c	21$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.04	228	34.6%79 W · 149 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No	74c	17.54$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.56	222	42.8%95 W · 127 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed No	63c	17$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.27	109	44%48 W · 61 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x154e…911fbacked No	77c	14.33$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.24	39	66.7%26 W · 13 L	+7.7wins	+0.20per pick	47cpaid	+36.4%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 48 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event