Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec3847eac2be33169ff18da8efa8f348fda167fcbda9b440d92e7f4aebcf42df

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $39,561
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $36,670

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,561 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x402c…e2e7backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	63	47.6%30 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes	23c	2,232$522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$522.35	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes	11c	1,484$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.2	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked No	76c	1,481$1,126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$355.44	165	64.2%106 W · 59 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Yes	17c	1,400$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238	383	51.4%197 W · 186 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes	14c	1,038$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.42	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No	77c	1,000$770 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230	1,075	45.2%486 W · 589 L	+41.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes	15c	954.93$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.21	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcd2…0eacbacked Yes	5c	910$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.5	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	18c	737.97$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.44	1,067	49.1%524 W · 543 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05f0…2469backed Yes	17c	546.27$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.87	129	45%58 W · 71 L	+7.5wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	4c	444$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.32	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcccc…05b2backed Yes	27c	396.9$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.31	40	45%18 W · 22 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb05d…dcdcbacked Yes	15c	333.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked No	79c	326$258 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.46	245	41.2%101 W · 144 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4151…60e7backed Yes	23c	325.05$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.48	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.8wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Yes	17c	312$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.04	374	52.1%195 W · 179 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x78c1…473ebacked Yes	16c	237.6$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.46	513	15.6%80 W · 433 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e7b…8767backed No	77c	219.98$169 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	110	58.2%64 W · 46 L	+13.1wins	+0.12per pick	46cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8a7c…3016backed Yes	23c	215.8$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	-6.7wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf79c…cb96backed Yes	18c	187.79$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.94	920	38.5%354 W · 566 L	-21.8wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Yes	21c	186.36$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	-7.7wins	-0.10per pick	25cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd65…b3dfbacked No	79c	151.9$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.9	46	52.2%24 W · 22 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+21%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e50…3912backed Yes	22c	150$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c8d…f822backed Yes	14c	149.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-4.5wins	-0.17per pick	31cpaid	-76.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x624b…56f8backed Yes	15c	136.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.96	51	25.5%13 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x86b4…a549backed Yes	28c	128.35$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	64	48.4%31 W · 33 L	+2.9wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed No	61c	128$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.88	63	28.6%18 W · 45 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No	79c	123.16$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.08	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4615…5ccbbacked No	80c	121$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.2	51	72.5%37 W · 14 L	+7.6wins	+0.15per pick	58cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes	20c	121$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.2	350	33.7%118 W · 232 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4512…d0eabacked Yes	18c	111.39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.05	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.20per pick	14cpaid	+214.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed Yes	17c	103.69$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.63	464	64.9%301 W · 163 L	+26.6wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb00…fda1backed Yes	23c	100.57$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.93	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-2.6wins	-0.22per pick	39cpaid	-70.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	26c	100$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	199	29.1%58 W · 141 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	18c	97.33$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.22	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x68cc…78e0backed Yes	15c	96.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.56	215	17.2%37 W · 178 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No	80c	93.64$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.87	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	14c	82.5$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	427	37.2%159 W · 268 L	-15.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1769…974ebacked Yes	19c	80.53$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	45	37.8%17 W · 28 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No	77c	80$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.4	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8acc…cc29backed Yes	17c	80$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	234	53%124 W · 110 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes	16c	75$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.26	345	54.2%187 W · 158 L	+17.9wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked Yes	17c	74.45$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.38	222	42.8%95 W · 127 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea1d…aa25backed No	77c	70$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.4	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a94…653abacked Yes	31c	64.3$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	57	49.1%28 W · 29 L	+6.2wins	+0.11per pick	38cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7c60…5c52backed No	77c	60$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.8	44	68.2%30 W · 14 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	62cpaid	+8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked No	54c	52.12$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.98	171	38%65 W · 106 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f8b…39f2backed No	79c	37.88$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.88	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad1b…1d65backed No	80c	35$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.05	92	59.8%55 W · 37 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ca…6038backed No	78c	30$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.5	10	90%9 W · 1 L	+2.2wins	+0.22per pick	68cpaid	+34.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b17…fdbfbacked No	78c	25.53$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.53	31	80.6%25 W · 6 L	+3.1wins	+0.10per pick	71cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8deb…d435backed No	78c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.4	4	75%3 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	77cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 48 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event