Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52e02be3786579f0da6c7c841ddb05bc96cff70eaa2ec232e2958990162f38ff

Rebuilt 21 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 27, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $21,541
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $20,391

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,541 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	1c	1,985$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.07	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd060…ce4fbacked Yes	34c	1,600$545 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$545	158	36.7%58 W · 100 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c2…198cbacked Yes	34c	1,387$471 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470.62	56	7.1%4 W · 52 L	-6.1wins	-0.11per pick	18cpaid	-74.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	63c	1,232$777 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$455.42	438	35.8%157 W · 281 L	-10.3wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes	14c	1,110$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.51	100	12%12 W · 88 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-46.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf410…ca73backed No	66c	1,045$691 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$354.45	116	37.1%43 W · 73 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x410c…7d2fbacked Yes	39c	1,033$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	58	55.2%32 W · 26 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes	32c	1,023$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.67	153	32%49 W · 104 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-28%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	3c	998.56$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.96	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No	59c	838.12$494 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$343.84	157	40.8%64 W · 93 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed No	65c	798.81$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$278.37	472	35%165 W · 307 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c81…8583backed Yes	41c	731.71$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No	60c	615.08$369 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$246.03	1,075	45.2%486 W · 589 L	+41.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes	29c	569.14$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.85	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92fa…4461backed Yes	45c	558.22$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked No	64c	516$331 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.14	436	35.8%156 W · 280 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No	72c	483.11$349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.06	181	39.8%72 W · 109 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes	34c	427.64$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.4	252	44.8%113 W · 139 L	+11.6wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8603…fb04backed Yes	48c	418.8$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	57	57.9%33 W · 24 L	+4.9wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No	55c	399.98$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.99	341	51%174 W · 167 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	16c	380.09$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.81	1,067	49.1%524 W · 543 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No	57c	374.98$214 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.24	406	49.8%202 W · 204 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked No	74c	368.86$272 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.15	589	26.8%158 W · 431 L	-30.5wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	9c	356.24$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.18	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No	59c	315.74$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130.41	154	45.5%70 W · 84 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a47…fcf3backed Yes	16c	250$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	142	38.7%55 W · 87 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd74c…e70bbacked Yes	43c	232$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.16	51	21.6%11 W · 40 L	-6.1wins	-0.12per pick	34cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9ab3…f88ebacked Yes	44c	229.13$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x958a…df0ebacked Yes	32c	216.67$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	60c	196.93$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.02	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e7b…8767backed No	50c	192.28$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.14	110	58.2%64 W · 46 L	+13.1wins	+0.12per pick	46cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes	25c	181.37$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.13	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x648b…8c77backed Yes	43c	178.05$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.56	108	55.6%60 W · 48 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee03…6edbbacked No	59c	174.88$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.7	168	54.8%92 W · 76 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57cd…82acbacked Yes	40c	162$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.5	60	31.7%19 W · 41 L	-6.5wins	-0.11per pick	42cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked No	58c	149.61$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.84	165	64.2%106 W · 59 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Yes	31c	140.74$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.3	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes	41c	125$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.25	200	36%72 W · 128 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No	57c	115.35$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.6	218	37.2%81 W · 137 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No	65c	112$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.2	228	34.6%79 W · 149 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43e8…e758backed Yes	40c	102.2$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	-4.1wins	-0.17per pick	46cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed Yes	39c	100$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	254	43.7%111 W · 143 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1387…b8c3backed Yes	41c	98.05$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	+2.8wins	+0.08per pick	41cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd449…450fbacked No	59c	92.35$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.79	127	44.9%57 W · 70 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68cc…78e0backed Yes	12c	89.16$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.97	215	17.2%37 W · 178 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf79c…cb96backed Yes	17c	83.28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	920	38.5%354 W · 566 L	-21.8wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf715…bbf0backed No	65c	80$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.08	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8acc…cc29backed No	61c	80$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	234	53%124 W · 110 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a8b…c9f8backed No	65c	76.92$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.92	26	50%13 W · 13 L	+2.6wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xceab…dce7backed No	55c	73.46$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.81	544	50.6%275 W · 269 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eec…c524backed No	62c	71.75$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.23	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x945e…353dbacked Yes	43c	64.38$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	85	54.1%46 W · 39 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30ee…a587backed Yes	20c	63.25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.42	82	40.2%33 W · 49 L	-4.6wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa52…3607backed No	56c	60$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.4	54	50%27 W · 27 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-12%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed No	63c	54.29$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	350	33.7%118 W · 232 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa254…ca7cbacked Yes	41c	48.78$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc52a…88babacked Yes	42c	47.75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	79	38%30 W · 49 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x938d…19fcbacked No	70c	42$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.6	56	46.4%26 W · 30 L	+2.9wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x887f…7289backed Yes	39c	40.16$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.66	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d34…3e28backed No	61c	40.16$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.66	28	78.6%22 W · 6 L	+4.4wins	+0.16per pick	63cpaid	+25.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x17a7…2925backed Yes	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde4…ab8bbacked Yes	40c	37.55$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.02	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	54cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No	75c	36$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	120	46.7%56 W · 64 L	-11.5wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes	39c	33.5$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.13	148	39.2%58 W · 90 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c60…5c52backed No	58c	33.33$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14	44	68.2%30 W · 14 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	62cpaid	+8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdfd…cf0cbacked Yes	42c	33.29$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed No	60c	30$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	287	31%89 W · 198 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e9…8f0fbacked Yes	39c	28.13$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+44%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc212…9e6fbacked Yes	43c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.75	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6d8…ebe1backed Yes	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+46.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d0a…2d46backed No	62c	22.79$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.66	41	48.8%20 W · 21 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc37…781dbacked No	71c	22$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.38	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked No	79c	16.67$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.5	100	35%35 W · 65 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 48 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event