Will Saudi Arabia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd33942e68b31ba788bc6f741ad2aec6021b3ad028feb8d1ff769772410fe23e6

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 27, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $19,388
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $22,691

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,388 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes	9c	5,312$477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$477.15	350	33.7%118 W · 232 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb05d…dcdcbacked Yes	11c	746.61$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.15	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadc5…6aa4backed Yes	15c	352.6$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.92	114	12.3%14 W · 100 L	-4.8wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b13…0c4abacked Yes	10c	313.08$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.16	58	31%18 W · 40 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	291.5$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.37	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fa6…67e8backed Yes	9c	250$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+88.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b0f…5998backed Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+82.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	9c	182.6$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.06	427	37.2%159 W · 268 L	-15.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3de2…d073backed Yes	9c	158.41$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.61	55	27.3%15 W · 40 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d39…c505backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-79.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb862…aee4backed Yes	11c	136.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	41cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e61…2d22backed Yes	15c	98.89$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	12c	83.37$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.41	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 48 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Saudi Arabia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event