Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2242de865e2979f2bef7b3dc255b44970ea26f799087eb0bfbc3e5c3ba5f9a48

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 27, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $966,137
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $515,780

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $966,137 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 326 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xda67…1739backed Yes	0c	63,506$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	32	3.1%1 W · 31 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+66.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	35,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4113…9514backed Yes	0c	26,871$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.25	25	36%9 W · 16 L	+2.5wins	+0.10per pick	26cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	25,421$734 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$734.35	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde95…e0aebacked Yes	0c	25,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	17c	24,900$4,233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,232.99	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x075a…fb98backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-65%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	19,590$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.16	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	2c	15,118$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.9	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b55…01c6backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e77…8876backed Yes	0c	14,959$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.66	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-79.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	80c	11,256$8,974 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,282.47	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2031…2325backed Yes	0c	10,733$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.73	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	10,476$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.27	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f74…b40ebacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f55…73b6backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.15per pick	34cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	7,790$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.42	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	3c	7,788$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf16…464ebacked Yes	5c	6,125$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a8f…8b2dbacked Yes	0c	6,098$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+3.5wins	+0.14per pick	26cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f39…4c71backed Yes	2c	6,073$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.21	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8331…965abacked Yes	3c	5,900$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+445.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	4c	5,892$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.57	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bac…8769backed Yes	9c	5,509$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.97	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-35%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeeb7…f008backed Yes	1c	5,173$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.43	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8090…8ebcbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.27per pick	23cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	5c	4,920$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.96	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	18c	4,869$883 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$883	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa06c…9d93backed Yes	2c	4,793$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	0c	4,549$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.41	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes	1c	4,413$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d55…d3a1backed Yes	23c	4,340$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	3c	3,955$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	12c	3,624$423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$422.66	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0338…70cfbacked Yes	3c	3,572$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-86.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	16c	3,202$511 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510.83	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	11c	3,182$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.02	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	2c	3,131$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.24	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes	16c	3,100$496 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496	75	6.7%5 W · 70 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0f2c…86bfbacked Yes	22c	3,086$671 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$670.74	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	2c	3,007$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce39…c181backed Yes	3c	2,889$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.83	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e7f…8c3cbacked Yes	3c	2,801$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.82	50	16%8 W · 42 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaba…d031backed Yes	2c	2,761$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.15	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	+383.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	8c	2,743$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.38	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47e4…7569backed Yes	3c	2,646$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.41	60	20%12 W · 48 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd37…6993backed Yes	27c	2,636$721 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$720.83	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes	1c	2,607$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	5c	2,588$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.95	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfbb…9e7cbacked Yes	3c	2,563$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.15	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+62.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes	3c	2,500$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	188	8%15 W · 173 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+86%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	75c	2,240$1,681 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$558.69	188	77.1%145 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x75ce…0a6fbacked Yes	3c	2,213$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	5c	2,172$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2c49…7af9backed Yes	2c	2,000$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	28cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe95f…1a57backed Yes	3c	2,000$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.44	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	4c	2,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6078…a677backed Yes	10c	1,950$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.09	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78cd…d017backed Yes	2c	1,900$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.7	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-82.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d8a…acdcbacked Yes	29c	1,883$549 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$548.73	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.15per pick	30cpaid	-64%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	4c	1,852$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	16c	1,800$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.17	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	12c	1,730$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.79	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e6…fb8ebacked Yes	4c	1,656$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3731…fb76backed Yes	14c	1,644$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.75	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes	15c	1,640$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf529…4fc0backed Yes	20c	1,605$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.3	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd052…7ab9backed Yes	14c	1,600$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.6	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb031…0106backed Yes	3c	1,553$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.35	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b2…f5c6backed Yes	3c	1,536$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes	11c	1,478$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.53	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x80b5…9631backed Yes	17c	1,471$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa0a…b7d2backed Yes	3c	1,446$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	19c	1,421$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	2c	1,399$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.39	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62f6…95d5backed Yes	28c	1,365$379 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378.54	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3a…4580backed Yes	2c	1,350$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.74	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4071…3de4backed Yes	5c	1,301$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	44	22.7%10 W · 34 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1bc…bd81backed Yes	24c	1,300$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	2c	1,290$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.66	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d49…bf50backed Yes	23c	1,286$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3973…b13ebacked Yes	2c	1,268$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.77	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-71.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ff…d98abacked Yes	2c	1,257$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed Yes	2c	1,255$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.98	8	25%2 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf19e…8eaabacked Yes	2c	1,251$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes	16c	1,250$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	13c	1,216$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.49	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No	79c	1,200$952 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$248	209	73.2%153 W · 56 L	+16.3wins	+0.08per pick	65cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e5d…c2f3backed Yes	6c	1,182$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb84b…95b1backed Yes	4c	1,174$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.95	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+4.4wins	+0.19per pick	37cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	4c	1,167$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.79	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d8f…75e6backed Yes	18c	1,110$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.8	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3daa…380dbacked Yes	19c	1,060$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9db9…fe75backed Yes	1c	1,050$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe52…959fbacked Yes	1c	1,010$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	8cpaid	+258.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c9…4c60backed Yes	25c	1,007$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.82	87	42.5%37 W · 50 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb1ea…8ad6backed Yes	20c	1,001$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-2.3wins	-0.17per pick	25cpaid	-67.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8c4…7b11backed Yes	20c	1,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	25c	1,000$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0de0…0884backed Yes	25c	1,000$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event