Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80f2ea26ff3933145dd59c5fb94a3060efb0e124eebc4c905422b2674585e6e8

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 25, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $252,868
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $214,958

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $252,868 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc4d1…8ce8backed Yes	14c	22,154$2,991 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,990.83	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	19cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd37…6993backed Yes	0c	10,019$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	1c	9,218$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.75	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	4,998$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05fb…e912backed Yes	0c	4,720$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	4,506$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.72	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80c0…f57ebacked Yes	6c	4,241$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,707$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.72	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	3,568$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.66	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	1c	2,856$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.93	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes	3c	2,773$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.46	49	12.2%6 W · 43 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+43.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	2,635$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.73	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86f7…6c8abacked Yes	0c	2,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	5c	2,169$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.35	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae83…da1cbacked Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	4c	1,650$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.9	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	2c	1,310$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x328b…a089backed Yes	8c	1,300$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	5c	1,100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.9	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	4c	1,061$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.97	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	4c	1,000$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.97	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	5c	1,000$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8936…79ebbacked Yes	8c	882.85$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849a…9fd7backed Yes	3c	700$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb84b…95b1backed Yes	13c	583.1$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.83	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+4.4wins	+0.19per pick	37cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x38b5…41c3backed Yes	3c	500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9cf…0e53backed Yes	6c	490.84$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5286…025cbacked Yes	9c	445.19$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	50	8%4 W · 46 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc90b…cb24backed Yes	4c	444.59$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9d…35f8backed Yes	10c	427.8$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.77	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3929…9b32backed Yes	14c	423.83$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x080d…677bbacked Yes	4c	422.9$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.52	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb456…1774backed Yes	6c	400$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.37	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-85.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	5c	375.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes	6c	344.35$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	11c	300$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x213e…98b7backed Yes	9c	263.84$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-56.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ddb…d96bbacked Yes	6c	255.01$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	11c	227$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.97	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c2e…3d70backed Yes	5c	215.87$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.58	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5884…9466backed Yes	6c	213.29$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.73	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-2.0wins	-0.18per pick	37cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8423…b93dbacked Yes	12c	205.8$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-44.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c6c…f7cdbacked Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0a…b7d2backed Yes	8c	183.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d02…220abacked Yes	11c	172.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.03	84	14.3%12 W · 72 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37f4…8697backed Yes	6c	170$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x227e…b279backed Yes	10c	155.06$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Yes	10c	100.89$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea02…23d1backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3161…daf5backed Yes	13c	97.58$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.08	77	18.2%14 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	+74.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event