TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$788,835
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$483,946

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $788,835 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes0c307,636$1,052 inLost-$1,052.428206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes0c28,549$100 inLost-$10070616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes0c20,000$40 inLost-$407966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes0c17,761$65 inLost-$65.433267.1%23 W · 303 L-0.9wins0.00per pick7cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc52c…6732backed Yes1c15,681$130 inLost-$130395.1%2 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick6cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0338…70cfbacked Yes0c14,998$70 inLost-$70175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-86.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda67…1739backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost-$20323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid+66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes1c10,000$100 inLost-$1001266.3%8 W · 118 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c9,877$34 inLost-$34.111,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes0c7,000$16 inLost-$165045.2%26 W · 478 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes0c6,853$33 inLost-$32.624912.2%6 W · 43 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+43.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes1c6,487$32 inLost-$32.431809.4%17 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes1c5,000$45 inLost-$457828.7%68 W · 714 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes0c4,824$10 inLost-$10.2549919%95 W · 404 L-1.7wins0.00per pick19cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,670$26 inLost-$25.972,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes0c2,610$12 inLost-$124798.6%41 W · 438 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x22b7…1e4abacked Yes1c2,022$14 inLost-$14.154413.6%6 W · 38 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes1c1,605$20 inLost-$2011221.4%24 W · 88 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes1c1,400$15 inLost-$14.82074.3%9 W · 198 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes1c1,060$10 inLost-$10.2617322.5%39 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost-$10588.6%5 W · 53 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+67.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes1c999.13$11 inLost-$10.657011.4%8 W · 62 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-66.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes1c936.18$11 inLost-$10.582,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.