Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x023e46ac9f644a03bcfcd2ac9cc382163cafb2a3bc586c21653ed29548558460

Rebuilt 35 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 28, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,043,112
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $550,783

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,043,112 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	234,018$1,376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,376.14	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	69,113$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440.06	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033e…34c6backed Yes	0c	61,946$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.66	25	16%4 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	33,318$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417.34	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	2c	23,950$437 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$437.12	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4d3…c5afbacked Yes	0c	20,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf16…464ebacked Yes	2c	16,682$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed Yes	0c	14,437$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.87	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0338…70cfbacked Yes	2c	12,581$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-86.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	2c	11,212$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.89	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	2c	10,551$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	2c	8,995$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.58	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	8,916$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.76	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	7,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	7,291$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.73	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	7,256$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.95	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	0c	7,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	6,778$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.03	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28b2…ff45backed Yes	0c	6,630$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.89	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+116.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes	1c	6,274$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.43	49	12.2%6 W · 43 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+43.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	0c	6,112$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa553…3eaebacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	2c	4,809$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.7	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	3,753$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.3	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	0c	3,659$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.38	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	2,906$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.75	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	0c	2,505$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.55	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	1c	2,500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda67…1739backed Yes	1c	1,994$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	32	3.1%1 W · 31 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+66.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	2c	1,814$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.96	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes	1c	1,800$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	75	6.7%5 W · 70 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	1c	1,722$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.21	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc52c…6732backed Yes	1c	1,707$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2c2…8489backed Yes	1c	1,548$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.53	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes	2c	1,501$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.52	243	7%17 W · 226 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	1,472$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.7	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	2c	1,371$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes	1c	1,297$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.32	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9dd…194ebacked Yes	2c	1,285$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	1,182$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	2c	1,011$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	1c	1,005$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8a0…f967backed Yes	2c	999.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6d…d787backed Yes	2c	999.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	2c	999.92$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	1c	999.34$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.43	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	1c	974.55$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.86	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed Yes	5c	859.13$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.14	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	2c	739.09$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.42	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	673.4$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes	3c	399.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event