TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$191,405
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$134,034

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $191,405 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f66…b986backed Yes1c12,415$79 inLost-$78.8356817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ef1…68fcbacked Yes0c12,165$24 inLost-$24.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes1c6,107$42 inLost-$41.845045.2%26 W · 478 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c5,086$31 inLost-$31.071,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes0c4,708$21 inLost-$211,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2982…5a7cbacked Yes4c2,800$101 inLost-$100.83125.8%8 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes1c1,703$24 inLost-$23.842097.7%16 W · 193 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,681$46 inLost-$46.072,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes2c1,500$25 inLost-$25.51873.2%6 W · 181 L-0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid+278.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes2c1,318$25 inLost-$24.752,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed Yes2c1,036$22 inLost-$21.5120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes2c999.01$17 inLost-$17.417011.4%8 W · 62 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-66.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6d…d787backed Yes1c991.46$11 inLost-$10.9190%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x080d…677bbacked Yes2c809.85$16 inLost-$1650%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes2c752.65$18 inLost-$183644.7%17 W · 347 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+98.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes6c752.35$44 inLost-$4442312.5%53 W · 370 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3929…9b32backed Yes7c721.99$50 inLost-$501612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes2c637.31$12 inLost-$12.39897.9%7 W · 82 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-42.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb456…1774backed Yes2c600$11 inLost-$10.71205%1 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-85.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5286…025cbacked Yes6c353.67$20 inLost-$20508%4 W · 46 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.