Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fe080131f61cd789da37bfc8df9ba1740067b583fa81ee8fe843d87c04dd38d

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 28, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,168,037
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,381,894

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,168,037 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 566 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6be9…3493backed No	32c	32,144$10,315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,315.41	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	16c	28,444$4,572 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23,872.28	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd37…6993backed Yes	25c	15,460$3,892 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,568.2	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	15c	14,827$2,201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,625.96	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x063a…eb4bbacked Yes	51c	14,579$7,479 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,100.39	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	+2.3wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+101.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	64c	11,993$7,626 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,367.3	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Yes	62c	11,529$7,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,429.86	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed No	0c	11,131$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.9	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	17c	10,794$1,876 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,918.88	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc88…43ccbacked No	78c	9,490$7,402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,402.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.78per pick	78cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	70c	9,350$6,533 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,817.17	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	47c	8,436$4,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,435.88	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	31c	8,061$2,480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,580.77	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd8f…4dc1backed Yes	59c	7,035$4,147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,888	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+61.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	32c	6,269$2,034 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,034.29	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked No	40c	5,561$2,203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,203.15	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	46c	5,290$2,459 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,830.51	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	73c	5,126$3,743 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,383.25	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	65c	5,069$3,269 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,799.19	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	21c	5,037$1,070 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,967.24	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d55…d3a1backed Yes	52c	5,000$2,586 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,414.8	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	19c	5,000$958 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,041.7	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0338…70cfbacked Yes	45c	4,277$1,912 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,364.71	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-86.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	34c	4,173$1,439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,438.96	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x913c…d100backed Yes	49c	4,095$1,993 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,102.01	28	50%14 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes	63c	4,088$2,580 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,508.36	52	40.4%21 W · 31 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60b5…0f8cbacked Yes	69c	4,058$2,818 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,240.82	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.13per pick	40cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	29c	4,008$1,142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,865.43	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed No	7c	3,669$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16d6…7268backed Yes	63c	3,411$2,141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,269.98	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a30…f47dbacked Yes	50c	3,269$1,632 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,636.86	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4113…9514backed Yes	68c	3,262$2,208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,053.82	25	36%9 W · 16 L	+2.5wins	+0.10per pick	26cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	16c	3,107$494 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,612.17	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked No	6c	3,012$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.25	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0c0…9165backed Yes	38c	3,000$1,146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,854	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfa6…da4fbacked Yes	19c	3,000$564 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,436	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,909.93	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No	1c	2,908$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.48	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	14c	2,797$379 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,417.62	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes	34c	2,575$868 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,706.69	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes	62c	2,531$1,557 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$973.19	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b7b…a88dbacked Yes	19c	2,487$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,006.59	44	36.4%16 W · 28 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	27c	2,339$632 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,707.45	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	22c	2,262$486 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,775.81	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	64c	2,237$1,439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,439.5	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes	27c	2,235$594 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,640.77	127	14.2%18 W · 109 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1589…688bbacked Yes	57c	2,207$1,247 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$959.37	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+246%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecef…75fabacked Yes	67c	2,206$1,470 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$736.55	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	20c	2,200$439 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,761.61	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	24c	2,200$526 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$526.4	246	72.8%179 W · 67 L	+15.5wins	+0.06per pick	66cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	42c	2,122$892 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,230.49	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	70c	2,120$1,480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$639.86	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ff…057cbacked Yes	59c	2,080$1,224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$856.2	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-3.1wins	-0.13per pick	34cpaid	-63.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	2c	2,042$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.46	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes	36c	2,020$735 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,284.9	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1420…8f14backed Yes	55c	2,009$1,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$909.36	66	27.3%18 W · 48 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc304…97b4backed No	22c	2,000$444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8178…dc7abacked Yes	10c	2,000$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,796.09	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	+9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe95f…1a57backed Yes	16c	2,000$329 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,671.11	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,899.94	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	78c	1,977$1,540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$436.55	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	31c	1,863$577 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,286.71	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x240d…bfd2backed Yes	19c	1,856$361 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,495.05	56	30.4%17 W · 39 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb3…56f3backed Yes	40c	1,799$713 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,085.1	41	29.3%12 W · 29 L	-3.3wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked No	12c	1,700$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.55	122	28.7%35 W · 87 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9710…80a3backed Yes	24c	1,584$382 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,202.37	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.23per pick	27cpaid	+107.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x770f…7752backed No	17c	1,578$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.52	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc18f…f929backed Yes	15c	1,557$232 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,324.28	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7502…beafbacked Yes	77c	1,508$1,165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$343.13	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+39.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x235e…da5abacked No	46c	1,399$646 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$646.23	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.15per pick	45cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed No	33c	1,359$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$441.67	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad7e…b762backed Yes	46c	1,317$606 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$711.37	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes	56c	1,305$730 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$575.09	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	3c	1,289$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,244.61	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	32c	1,237$401 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$835.29	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes	18c	1,235$226 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,008.86	49	12.2%6 W · 43 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+43.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8a9…6da5backed Yes	16c	1,187$193 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$994.12	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes	63c	1,173$736 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$436.75	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-5.3wins	-0.09per pick	33cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e26…e972backed Yes	41c	1,163$478 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$684.8	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-4.6wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbed7…c0cfbacked Yes	18c	1,140$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$939.7	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.18per pick	15cpaid	+106.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89b8…82b2backed Yes	38c	1,089$410 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$678.71	82	14.6%12 W · 70 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	46c	1,086$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$585.79	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f55…73b6backed Yes	77c	1,066$817 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$249.76	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.15per pick	34cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	16c	1,055$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$885.52	731	15.2%111 W · 620 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf014…d442backed Yes	31c	1,054$324 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$729.88	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	23cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x366c…6578backed No	5c	1,050$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.8	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd5e…271bbacked Yes	46c	1,048$485 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$562.61	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9792…9212backed Yes	50c	1,041$519 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$522.07	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	12cpaid	+217.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb631…8a87backed Yes	67c	1,041$701 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$339.52	89	16.9%15 W · 74 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-46%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	56c	1,033$582 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$450.15	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a19…81b9backed Yes	27c	1,011$278 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$733.41	42	19%8 W · 34 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	12c	1,011$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$891.78	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked Yes	51c	1,007$516 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$491.75	128	18.8%24 W · 104 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes	20c	1,005$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$805.21	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7100…3c87backed Yes	16c	1,002$161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$840.89	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e8…db25backed Yes	29c	1,000$290 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$710.16	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2616…8d3cbacked Yes	48c	1,000$484 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$516	30	40%12 W · 18 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaab…e6f2backed Yes	20c	1,000$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$803	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+79.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a4e…53a2backed No	45c	999.99$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes	4c	999.98$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$959.98	75	6.7%5 W · 70 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event