IPO · resolved market
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2a5145e4597061e02ef614a3ed4c89e12d36b79cf066fc362da9937c709d201
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa992…cdb9backed No | 51c | 12,067$6,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,904.04 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa90a…63e0backed Yes | 2c | 11,030$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82e0…7f7cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,360$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed Yes | 2c | 6,941$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b8…bf6abacked Yes | 3c | 3,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc4…b202backed Yes | 31c | 3,211$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7928…f432backed Yes | 16c | 2,761$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…93e6backed Yes | 0c | 2,702$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 1c | 2,554$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 2,349$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.93 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,331$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 0c | 2,171$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 10c | 2,101$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.35 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd09c…bb5fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,951$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 22c | 1,729$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.2 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…6822backed Yes | 8c | 1,401$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3898…ea1fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,330$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e0…a6e7backed Yes | 21c | 1,018$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a4…3a80backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 3c | 943.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bea…873ebacked Yes | 21c | 839.53$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 51c | 717.29$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…f240backed Yes | 31c | 692.44$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…9925backed Yes | 66c | 684.99$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked No | 56c | 665.02$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x961b…2b00backed No | 18c | 655.32$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +457.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed No | 16c | 646.65$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.19 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +202.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff9e…d99bbacked Yes | 5c | 590.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2b…b548backed Yes | 70c | 583.98$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 72c | 557.11$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked No | 69c | 539.97$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.59 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf4…712cbacked Yes | 16c | 509.1$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7f…0092backed Yes | 14c | 506.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf1…99d3backed No | 70c | 429.28$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 37c | 414.74$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked Yes | 67c | 400$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 37c | 395.24$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +214.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb80b…b047backed No | 72c | 389.44$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6627…000cbacked Yes | 20c | 378.29$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e7…06c1backed Yes | 16c | 333.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa4…4cd4backed Yes | 24c | 291.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…4516backed Yes | 17c | 286.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…e125backed Yes | 23c | 276.35$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…04ffbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 61c | 234.12$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.29 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 68c | 231.06$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 229.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…179abacked Yes | 8c | 227.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 12c | 217.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x734c…1d86backed Yes | 20c | 208.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…149bbacked No | 71c | 192.44$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…fb40backed Yes | 8c | 191.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e26…3edfbacked Yes | 23c | 177.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…b413backed Yes | 67c | 163.84$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…68bcbacked Yes | 65c | 153.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…8fcebacked No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 37c | 149.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…8cd0backed No | 74c | 142.86$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 135.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…2ed3backed Yes | 73c | 128.86$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 26c | 126.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf50e…68a1backed Yes | 16c | 123.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed Yes | 18c | 120.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…c62fbacked Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 17c | 116.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +480.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ca…60aebacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c10…26eabacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3c0ebacked Yes | 65c | 93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…0e74backed Yes | 13c | 88.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7013…8bfabacked No | 35c | 87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…55cabacked No | 74c | 82.22$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b8…bb8dbacked Yes | 27c | 81.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 24c | 79.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +206.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 75c | 79.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe19…2665backed Yes | 71c | 70.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +5.7wins | +0.52per pick | 39cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa9…3a1ebacked Yes | 17c | 69.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Yes | 74c | 65.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd335…f0debacked Yes | 15c | 65.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba71…725bbacked Yes | 31c | 64.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9186…0666backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 61.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…fe95backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…d823backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ab…738ebacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b3…33febacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda7…7223backed Yes | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe431…395dbacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Yes | 79c | 56.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d0…c774backed Yes | 67c | 54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd55…c4a4backed No | 79c | 53.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 64c | 52.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -5.9wins | -0.37per pick | 43cpaid | -92%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xacaf…1f47backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe597…abb9backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a00…170bbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7d…617fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.