TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb80b…b047

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
66
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Weather, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 58 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT2356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.58
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+99.2%+$164.82
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+56.6%+$72.21
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.17
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+112%+$192.22
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+30.9%+$83.96
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$583Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$582.52
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$69
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$22
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$83.13
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$211.8
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$63.96
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.1
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.8
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$6
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+137%+$120.46
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+43.1%+$52.68
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+39.9%+$15.96
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$23
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.6
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.65
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$201.19
All 23 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick61cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.41per pick39cpaid+114.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Weather — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 10, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+71.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
IPO — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+113.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 25, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+208.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+29.3%+$10.94
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+387.8%+$159
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.45
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.