Movies · resolved market
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7604b99a95cab1a5df91271a6695af6d7aaa914892ac01e3dbe3311c92f2b9c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $187,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $191,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 34c | 14,933$5,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,031.7 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 28c | 14,913$4,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,156.47 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked Yes | 58c | 8,056$4,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,404.48 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7056…c95cbacked Yes | 26c | 8,000$2,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,904.26 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed No | 79c | 6,998$5,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,514.32 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 27c | 6,645$1,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,762.1 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 59c | 4,286$2,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,763.56 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9214…a803backed Yes | 70c | 4,187$2,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.66 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…c234backed Yes | 62c | 4,076$2,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,557.63 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76aa…c4f4backed Yes | 78c | 3,764$2,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 62c | 3,473$2,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.65 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 29c | 3,320$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.95 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 37c | 3,214$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.32 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 38c | 2,754$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.1 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 2c | 2,711$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 64c | 2,497$1,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 51c | 2,100$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.85 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 10c | 1,855$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.61 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 1,717$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.43 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…0216backed Yes | 79c | 1,694$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 46c | 1,677$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.32 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 57c | 1,579$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.23 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 38c | 1,564$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.53 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 35c | 1,435$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.64 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked No | 22c | 1,420$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.58 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9183…c349backed Yes | 77c | 1,259$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 30c | 1,245$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.66 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 1,121$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.75 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcd…28a1backed Yes | 42c | 1,013$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 31c | 984.09$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 965.13$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.11 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…005abacked Yes | 62c | 964.8$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 21c | 938.72$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.59 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 934.47$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.67 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0d…7ec8backed Yes | 77c | 814.94$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 33c | 813.92$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…b5b5backed Yes | 18c | 800$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.3 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 79c | 797.05$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.37 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc237…0432backed Yes | 78c | 769.23$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 31c | 759.2$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.52 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 721$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.87 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 28c | 651.48$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.37 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 79c | 632.91$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.91 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 18c | 577.63$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.34 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 549.34$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.14 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 548.58$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.7 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 29c | 540$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.34 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 34c | 500$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed No | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5f…c111backed Yes | 45c | 492.61$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.77 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3825…04e8backed No | 28c | 479.96$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 62c | 475.23$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.42 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf508…30a5backed Yes | 68c | 441.42$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.42 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 25c | 425$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.76 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 8c | 411.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 14c | 402.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 74c | 400.35$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.48 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 24c | 400$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked No | 9c | 399.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed Yes | 35c | 399.98$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.49 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 40c | 381.06$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.6 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 68c | 360.1$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.7 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 27c | 347.7$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.98 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 338.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.8 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 18c | 337.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.73 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa160…f853backed Yes | 49c | 326.56$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0443…2221backed No | 57c | 315.78$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Yes | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed Yes | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed No | 56c | 300$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked No | 13c | 276.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 262.69$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.38 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -8.1wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…8137backed Yes | 79c | 262.03$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.03 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 14c | 258.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 17c | 255.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.71 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 245.91$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.35 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 76c | 240.09$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 54c | 224$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.63 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b0…2784backed Yes | 77c | 220.78$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…d1a7backed Yes | 63c | 219.21$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 11c | 213.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 18c | 212.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.41 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 33c | 211.54$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 14c | 208.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 42c | 207.95$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.42 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 47c | 206.98$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.28 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.48 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb80b…b047backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 32c | 199.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.99 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…6301backed No | 8c | 198.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 192.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.05 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 72c | 189.26$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Yes | 40c | 187.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.58 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 44cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8467…f9e4backed Yes | 34c | 186.92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 20c | 185$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 68c | 177.4$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.85 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -5.7wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28b8…5e00backed No | 12c | 173.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…ddb3backed Yes | 76c | 170.59$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 47c | 162.93$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?this page
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?No won
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m?No won
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m?No won
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.