Movies · resolved market
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc04978d74614d508f65daa1d297bbef2620897ab3c6ecdf4bcb3069ac1ef657a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 4c | 13,137$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.16 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 2c | 3,548$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…b5b5backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.69 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7056…c95cbacked Yes | 5c | 3,000$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 1c | 2,484$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 5c | 1,715$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.55 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 1c | 1,626$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…d74fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,162$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…2a78backed Yes | 2c | 1,110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 2c | 985.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 725.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 6c | 540$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 7c | 499.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…d1a7backed Yes | 4c | 452.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 344.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m?this page
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?No won
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?Yes won
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m?No won
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.