TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$137,400
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$88,739

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,400 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6dd9…1024backed Yes7c15,702$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.075234.6%18 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No62c14,064$8,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,377.4817751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4da7…355ebacked Yes37c13,919$5,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,140.357538.7%29 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeac…0216backed Yes1c10,539$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.81030%3 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick20cpaid-36.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes55c5,412$2,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9904114.6%6 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8eb…8473backed Yes3c3,743$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.063010%3 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-66.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7056…c95cbacked No53c3,170$1,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,478.792263.6%14 W · 8 L+6.0wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+87.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x88ee…c234backed Yes40c2,794$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.52433.3%8 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7db…feb0backed Yes7c2,700$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.53831.6%12 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-38%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked No48c2,526$1,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,314.529642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed Yes56c2,319$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.3423639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes34c2,300$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79347328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No37c2,282$843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,438.654238.1%16 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e42…49edbacked Yes1c2,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4906…7e10backed Yes4c1,947$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick7cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x810f…57aabacked Yes2c1,888$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.091526.7%4 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes16c1,758$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.7710139.6%40 W · 61 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4682…4d40backed Yes2c1,714$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7bb…a9f7backed No60c1,637$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.48247.6%39 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked No64c1,546$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.7115149%74 W · 77 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdad7…005abacked Yes11c1,350$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.26633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked Yes12c1,321$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.5912936.4%47 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes13c1,234$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.1111924.4%29 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes1c1,155$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9510814.8%16 W · 92 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9214…a803backed Yes53c1,134$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes48c1,113$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.1713635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No74c1,105$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.0912442.7%53 W · 71 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb70b…6087backed Yes35c1,096$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.2911633.6%39 W · 77 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed Yes1c1,076$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.675251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes17c1,044$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.3113735%48 W · 89 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes35c1,025$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.0432639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No80c1,025$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.959951.5%51 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7230…f3d0backed Yes2c999.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes3c910.79$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7613820.3%28 W · 110 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed Yes6c876.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1317017.1%29 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No49c778.13$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.5310549.5%52 W · 53 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d55…7cbabacked Yes1c750$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102524%6 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick13cpaid+127.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8199…bb6dbacked Yes23c725.62$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.25560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+55.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2330…ed99backed Yes54c725.28$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.622560%15 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xeae4…ad95backed Yes3c675.37$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.41333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No68c640$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.158638.4%33 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes7c609.32$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4115054.7%82 W · 68 L+30.5wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+62.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x2482…67b1backed Yes19c600$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.99034.4%31 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-12.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes2c593.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.08229.1%2 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-66.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x11c8…be84backed Yes50c580.51$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2915650%28 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21a3…9e97backed Yes28c540$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.941127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe00a…330ebacked Yes59c506.36$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No43c500$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2854841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2502653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes33c499.98$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16726431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes42c489.72$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.3719532.8%64 W · 131 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf697…c72cbacked Yes21c474.2$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993625%9 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-46.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes23c454.71$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9919133%63 W · 128 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01e6…1a13backed Yes5c431.39$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-42.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb5f…c111backed Yes25c399.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003129%9 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed Yes23c363.19$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9913119.1%25 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf72…2a2cbacked No63c332$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick62cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5450…2a78backed Yes14c323.21$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.422420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No56c310$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.13545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd56…0b8dbacked Yes11c308.92$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352236.4%8 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x42e6…8e78backed Yes40c305.6$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.57860.3%47 W · 31 L+7.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes49c300$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14730%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.72013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes16c292.35$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4818746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes26c292.1$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5336538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4abe…37b7backed Yes12c281.8$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.931233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No78c272$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.078653.5%46 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8536…3da3backed Yes49c251.54$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.291346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7ea…ea62backed No60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No67c241$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.9523130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87e8…b760backed Yes28c231.28$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656137.7%23 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes20c230$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.295234.6%18 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324936.7%18 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x159e…050ebacked Yes28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.376630.3%20 W · 46 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925129.4%15 W · 36 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-24.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-54.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df9…3a84backed Yes22c199.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b1a…4c96backed Yes46c199.99$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.39757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa69…6bcdbacked Yes40c199.33$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No51c195$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.711240.2%45 W · 67 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf508…30a5backed Yes46c193.47$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.871855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb59…d1a7backed Yes15c184.64$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes23c175.01$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.941741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No65c172.57$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.713636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0443…2221backed No72c158.69$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.93333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-53.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2cf…3ff1backed Yes11c150.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.054623.9%11 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No45c150$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.55362.3%33 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3825…04e8backed No45c139.98$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.39633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbb0…bd65backed No61c131.64$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.71838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aab…1323backed Yes22c131$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No75c129.73$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3216737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ad4…fa20backed No63c125$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.252142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes21c124.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes29c123.32$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7610537.1%39 W · 66 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes30c123.19$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2387033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x952d…ab8abacked Yes46c115.67$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.53560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x734b…2a2cbacked Yes23c112.16$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.851145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No61c105.3$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.253748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f92…ecc7backed Yes42c105.24$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe02d…bcffbacked Yes23c103.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.