Movies · resolved market
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacfc843170791970f3d730112fcb9937d2c6f25d83480113dbff300ef12d9163
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 7c | 15,702$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.07 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 62c | 14,064$8,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,377.48 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 37c | 13,919$5,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,140.35 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…0216backed Yes | 1c | 10,539$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 55c | 5,412$2,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,990 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed Yes | 3c | 3,743$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.06 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7056…c95cbacked No | 53c | 3,170$1,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.79 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…c234backed Yes | 40c | 2,794$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.5 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed Yes | 7c | 2,700$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.5 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 48c | 2,526$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,314.5 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 56c | 2,319$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.34 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 2,300$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 37c | 2,282$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.65 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4906…7e10backed Yes | 4c | 1,947$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…57aabacked Yes | 2c | 1,888$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,758$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.77 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4682…4d40backed Yes | 2c | 1,714$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed No | 60c | 1,637$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.4 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked No | 64c | 1,546$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.71 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…005abacked Yes | 11c | 1,350$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,321$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.59 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,234$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.11 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,155$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9214…a803backed Yes | 53c | 1,134$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 48c | 1,113$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.17 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 1,105$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.09 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 35c | 1,096$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.29 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 1c | 1,076$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 1,044$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.31 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 35c | 1,025$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.04 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 1,025$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.95 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7230…f3d0backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 3c | 910.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 6c | 876.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 49c | 778.13$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.53 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked Yes | 1c | 750$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8199…bb6dbacked Yes | 23c | 725.62$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 54c | 725.28$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.62 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeae4…ad95backed Yes | 3c | 675.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 640$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.15 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 7c | 609.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 19c | 600$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.9 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 2c | 593.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 50c | 580.51$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 28c | 540$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.94 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 59c | 506.36$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 33c | 499.98$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 42c | 489.72$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.37 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…c72cbacked Yes | 21c | 474.2$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 454.71$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…1a13backed Yes | 5c | 431.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5f…c111backed Yes | 25c | 399.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 23c | 363.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.99 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf72…2a2cbacked No | 63c | 332$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…2a78backed Yes | 14c | 323.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 56c | 310$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.1 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd56…0b8dbacked Yes | 11c | 308.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 40c | 305.6$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 16c | 292.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 292.1$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.53 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4abe…37b7backed Yes | 12c | 281.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 272$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.07 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8536…3da3backed Yes | 49c | 251.54$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.29 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed No | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 67c | 241$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.95 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed Yes | 28c | 231.28$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 20c | 230$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df9…3a84backed Yes | 22c | 199.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1a…4c96backed Yes | 46c | 199.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa69…6bcdbacked Yes | 40c | 199.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 195$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf508…30a5backed Yes | 46c | 193.47$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…d1a7backed Yes | 15c | 184.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 23c | 175.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 65c | 172.57$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.71 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0443…2221backed No | 72c | 158.69$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…3ff1backed Yes | 11c | 150.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3825…04e8backed No | 45c | 139.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 61c | 131.64$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aab…1323backed Yes | 22c | 131$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 129.73$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 63c | 125$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 21c | 124.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 29c | 123.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 123.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x952d…ab8abacked Yes | 46c | 115.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked Yes | 23c | 112.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 105.3$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…ecc7backed Yes | 42c | 105.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…bcffbacked Yes | 23c | 103.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m?this page
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?No won
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?Yes won
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m?No won
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.