Movies · resolved market
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8db54b33e838dacf85fdd2ec8dd16c425f37844eb6393a7ec0b2e0361d220156
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 14c | 11,147$1,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,594.98 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…c234backed Yes | 9c | 8,442$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.93 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 10c | 4,828$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.75 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 14c | 4,399$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.91 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4906…7e10backed Yes | 2c | 4,308$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 14c | 2,750$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,630$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.64 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed Yes | 4c | 1,521$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…005abacked Yes | 3c | 1,350$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,132$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3d…52d3backed Yes | 1c | 1,123$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,001$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.59 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 912.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 10c | 899.97$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.4 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 13c | 871.3$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.32 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…57aabacked Yes | 7c | 849.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 14c | 761.18$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.81 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…b5b5backed No | 76c | 700$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.87 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked No | 66c | 656.22$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.49 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 10c | 637.09$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53c…67a5backed Yes | 10c | 577.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 19c | 540$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 16c | 499.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 12c | 478.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 6c | 477.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8199…bb6dbacked Yes | 14c | 448.36$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…b444backed Yes | 13c | 431.87$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 6c | 350$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 79c | 346.26$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.82 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8536…3da3backed Yes | 14c | 338.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2434…05eabacked Yes | 12c | 322.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 9c | 294.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…2a78backed Yes | 11c | 279.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 12c | 272.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 15c | 209.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 10c | 198$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 17c | 197$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -7.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 195$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 20c | 186.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…8a05backed Yes | 17c | 162$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…178bbacked Yes | 23c | 151.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…8c5bbacked Yes | 14c | 149.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 34c | 116.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4455…6358backed Yes | 18c | 110.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8533…7c76backed Yes | 13c | 101.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df9…3a84backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…ee15backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 98.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…6301backed Yes | 12c | 95.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…8137backed Yes | 22c | 91.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…bf77backed Yes | 14c | 88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 13c | 79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 77c | 62.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…bcffbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…d0e5backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…072ebacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 62c | 31.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…3d0fbacked No | 78c | 15.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m?this page
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?No won
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?Yes won
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m?No won
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.