TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$193,508
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$133,729

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,508 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes27c33,092$8,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,862.6317751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaad…69ccbacked Yes4c22,613$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.111957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes18c16,641$3,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,069.0529642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x955c…990fbacked Yes9c8,764$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.047157.7%41 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes23c5,582$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.9211924.4%29 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7056…c95cbacked Yes23c5,267$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.532263.6%14 W · 8 L+6.0wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+87.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x88ee…c234backed Yes6c5,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002433.3%8 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes39c3,948$1,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,531.5418746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes9c3,749$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.936639.4%26 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes19c3,634$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.147328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No76c3,162$2,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.467537.3%28 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes5c2,755$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.5829423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No78c2,671$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.6910339.8%41 W · 62 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x46b4…72e9backed Yes11c2,421$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.251520%3 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-71%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2330…ed99backed Yes31c2,380$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.522560%15 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4490…54d7backed Yes17c2,350$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.32742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick25cpaid+31.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes9c2,084$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.0510549.5%52 W · 53 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes11c1,809$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.918247.6%39 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes10c1,780$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.913635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes8c1,500$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.51338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No78c1,455$1,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.534436.4%16 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-42.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdad7…005abacked Yes13c1,350$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.68633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb94c…b5b5backed Yes19c1,250$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.44746.8%22 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes21c1,232$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.332739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed Yes3c1,074$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.895251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes19c1,012$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.5113735%48 W · 89 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No73c943.92$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.1816737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No79c853.82$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.4722030.5%67 W · 153 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes12c843.2$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2619133%63 W · 128 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No67c817.2$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.441050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes17c803.71$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.1123321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3387…c3f7backed Yes40c688.38$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.741346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-13.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes32c614.06$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.5115149%74 W · 77 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb59…d1a7backed Yes12c602.16$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes5c599.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.64314%6 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-67.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes39c584.01$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.513043.3%13 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21a3…9e97backed Yes17c540$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.291127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes6c517.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9226431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed Yes5c500$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.513119.1%25 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd0d…7ec8backed No73c486.79$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.152100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed Yes39c468.38$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.666150.8%31 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fa8…4359backed Yes4c462.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No60c449.4$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.7610139.6%40 W · 61 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c398$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.272013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes4c385$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8210814.8%16 W · 92 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8192…0664backed Yes9c381.79$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.13210%0 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes23c367.91$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.332857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No73c338.9$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.316747.8%32 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf01…5ee9backed Yes7c316.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes34c312.49$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2536538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60a8…7d37backed Yes23c307.33$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.171421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-63.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No65c303.74$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.988442.9%36 W · 48 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes23c302.53$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.164936.7%18 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb70b…6087backed Yes21c300$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.811633.6%39 W · 77 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes35c282.74$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.74930.6%15 W · 34 L-8.1wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-47.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xfd56…0b8dbacked Yes16c257.8$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422236.4%8 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes5c256.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.623917.9%7 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked No80c247.99$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.279851%50 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…feb0backed No78c245$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.413831.6%12 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-38%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes14c239.77$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.731811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-49.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes6c236.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.211612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked No77c224.35$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.41827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-64.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6dec…cefabacked Yes39c220$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.795042%21 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3b6…90d3backed Yes8c218.18$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.023148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cfd…eb36backed No79c215$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No60c211.54$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.271643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No61c207$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.314748.9%23 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No76c205.2$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.684645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad99…dbabbacked Yes15c201.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.83714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3ab…300abacked Yes9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.131118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-22%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes32c200$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.85129.4%15 W · 36 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-24.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed Yes7c198.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9717017.1%29 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f90…e17fbacked Yes8c189.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8540%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes25c188$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.755234.6%18 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedf0…a1d3backed Yes11c180.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes25c178.55$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0719532.8%64 W · 131 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4abe…37b7backed Yes10c170.32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.781233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No77c163.63$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.634841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01e6…1a13backed Yes11c157.95$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-42.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes8c146$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4da7…355ebacked Yes20c145.89$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.897538.7%29 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xead3…b125backed No72c143.12$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.07475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+43.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87e8…b760backed Yes14c142.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206137.7%23 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes39c141.06$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.593056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31ff…98b4backed Yes13c139.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.75728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-54.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39ca…7605backed Yes16c135.34$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.583562.9%22 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6e3…6867backed No79c131.68$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad5b…faddbacked No79c127.38$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92c3…735bbacked Yes12c124.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed No64c119.78$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.71955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes12c119.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.871926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes24c117.06$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5713034.6%45 W · 85 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked No78c108.91$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7816040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes16c106.68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.081,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes20c105.21$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.761,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc54…db0ebacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+23.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb368…202bbacked No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2482…67b1backed Yes15c99.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159034.4%31 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-12.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…dcc6backed Yes25c99.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.91250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.