Movies · resolved market
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e8b3c284992d8d69170cd7c051540a1402c2f44ba47b32f1f74364e867db2cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $193,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 27c | 33,092$8,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,862.63 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…69ccbacked Yes | 4c | 22,613$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.11 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 18c | 16,641$3,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,069.05 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked Yes | 9c | 8,764$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.04 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 23c | 5,582$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.92 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7056…c95cbacked Yes | 23c | 5,267$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.53 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…c234backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 39c | 3,948$1,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,531.54 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 9c | 3,749$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.93 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 3,634$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.1 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 76c | 3,162$2,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.46 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 5c | 2,755$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.58 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 78c | 2,671$2,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.69 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 11c | 2,421$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 31c | 2,380$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.52 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4490…54d7backed Yes | 17c | 2,350$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 9c | 2,084$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.05 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 11c | 1,809$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.91 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,780$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.9 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,500$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 78c | 1,455$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.53 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…005abacked Yes | 13c | 1,350$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…b5b5backed Yes | 19c | 1,250$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.4 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,232$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.3 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 3c | 1,074$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 1,012$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.51 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 943.92$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.18 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 853.82$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.47 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 843.2$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.26 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 67c | 817.2$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 17c | 803.71$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.11 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3387…c3f7backed Yes | 40c | 688.38$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.74 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 32c | 614.06$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.51 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…d1a7backed Yes | 12c | 602.16$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 5c | 599.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 39c | 584.01$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.51 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 17c | 540$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 6c | 517.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 5c | 500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0d…7ec8backed No | 73c | 486.79$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 39c | 468.38$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.66 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa8…4359backed Yes | 4c | 462.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 60c | 449.4$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.76 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 398$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 4c | 385$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…0664backed Yes | 9c | 381.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes | 23c | 367.91$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.33 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 338.9$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.31 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf01…5ee9backed Yes | 7c | 316.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 312.49$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed Yes | 23c | 307.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 303.74$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.98 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 23c | 302.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.16 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 21c | 300$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 35c | 282.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -8.1wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd56…0b8dbacked Yes | 16c | 257.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 5c | 256.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 80c | 247.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed No | 78c | 245$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.41 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 14c | 239.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 6c | 236.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 77c | 224.35$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 39c | 220$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.79 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b6…90d3backed Yes | 8c | 218.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…eb36backed No | 79c | 215$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 60c | 211.54$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.27 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 61c | 207$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.31 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 76c | 205.2$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Yes | 15c | 201.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ab…300abacked Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 32c | 200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 7c | 198.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…e17fbacked Yes | 8c | 189.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 25c | 188$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…a1d3backed Yes | 11c | 180.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 25c | 178.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4abe…37b7backed Yes | 10c | 170.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 77c | 163.63$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…1a13backed Yes | 11c | 157.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 8c | 146$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 20c | 145.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 72c | 143.12$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed Yes | 14c | 142.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 39c | 141.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…98b4backed Yes | 13c | 139.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39ca…7605backed Yes | 16c | 135.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e3…6867backed No | 79c | 131.68$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5b…faddbacked No | 79c | 127.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c3…735bbacked Yes | 12c | 124.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 64c | 119.78$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 119.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 24c | 117.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked No | 78c | 108.91$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 106.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 105.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…db0ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb368…202bbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…dcc6backed Yes | 25c | 99.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?this page
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?Yes won
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m?No won
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m?No won
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.