Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ae51942a487c4585aa4c5986c29b7499972e560bd235a9545d09d0522116cdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 53c | 2,290$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.36 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 27c | 1,244$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.39 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 58c | 945.01$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.75 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 37c | 899.4$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.54 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 18c | 800$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 774$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.64 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 740.75$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.7 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 729.5$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 26c | 623.17$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.36 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 69c | 567.23$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.29 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 48c | 544.83$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.52 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 13c | 495.31$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.73 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 462.51$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 443.1$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 373.14$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.2 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 70c | 361.75$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.38 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 358.06$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.63 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed Yes | 42c | 334.61$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.74 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 327$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.59 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 318.4$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.4 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 305.19$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.41 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 51c | 297.64$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.24 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 24c | 280.15$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.3 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 22c | 273.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.04 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 46c | 259.46$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.07 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…cc26backed Yes | 17c | 232.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.26 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 21c | 231.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.54 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 218.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.72 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 68c | 209.71$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.12 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 16c | 202.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.94 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 28c | 200.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.03 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 11c | 200$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.5 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 186.48$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 20c | 185.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.77 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 56c | 184.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 27c | 184.52$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.83 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 38c | 170.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 16c | 169.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.1 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 73c | 162.33$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 64c | 157.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.85 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 68c | 152.95$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.46 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 12c | 152$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.08 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 16c | 144.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.46 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 67c | 138.17$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.18 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 65c | 136.95$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.76 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 20c | 135.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.6 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…94f9backed Yes | 58c | 135.65$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…b57abacked Yes | 52c | 135.4$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 132.66$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.02 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 66c | 132.49$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 127.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.64 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…05a3backed Yes | 18c | 126.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 123.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.05 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 13c | 122.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.18 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 119.28$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 19c | 118.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.09 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 26c | 115.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.52 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 29c | 110.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.27 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 106.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.87 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 32c | 103.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 26c | 101.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.92 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be6…66ffbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed No | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 28c | 99.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.34 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 17c | 98.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.47 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 33c | 94.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 19c | 94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…2456backed Yes | 57c | 90.91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5750…955abacked No | 22c | 87.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…4db6backed Yes | 18c | 84.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 59c | 82.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 82.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 18c | 77.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.68 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 30c | 76.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 73c | 74.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.19 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 54c | 71.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 21c | 69.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80b…b047backed Yes | 63c | 66.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x781d…201bbacked No | 48c | 65.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762b…d3b9backed Yes | 18c | 61.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…eb63backed Yes | 77c | 61.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 36c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 17c | 59.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb3…02e9backed No | 43c | 58.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 71c | 58.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 17c | 58.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 76c | 56.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 47c | 55.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 44c | 54.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.