Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa2a1bd12d7ed3557521d38f9cf762b77a35b73794e8106e979b212f6b36ca1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafa4…1af0backed Yes | 1c | 2,566$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed No | 19c | 2,367$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920.13 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 2,359$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.65 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed Yes | 80c | 2,209$1,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,762.93 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbafe…5c14backed Yes | 75c | 2,088$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 43c | 2,020$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.78 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 7c | 1,511$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.51 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 15c | 1,506$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.13 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,356$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 45c | 1,276$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.45 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 1,039$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.78 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 984.9$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.47 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 920.79$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 42c | 839.32$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.88 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 12c | 680.53$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.46 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 680$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 70c | 663.79$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.84 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed No | 47c | 647.1$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.98 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 76c | 640.17$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.43 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 6c | 609.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Yes | 15c | 604.84$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 2c | 601.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 5c | 569.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 54c | 567.9$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.15 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 76c | 556.44$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.15 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 9c | 550.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 3c | 514$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 448.41$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 18c | 435.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.88 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62ef…f1dcbacked Yes | 63c | 401.73$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.22 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 351.75$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5be6…66ffbacked Yes | 71c | 350$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 23c | 336.94$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 37c | 324.21$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.03 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 37c | 318.04$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.32 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…ecb6backed Yes | 4c | 305.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c53…6339backed Yes | 7c | 300.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 19c | 264.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.5 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 79c | 260$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.93 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 18c | 257.87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.08 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 57c | 253.34$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbc…cd7bbacked Yes | 79c | 251.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 74c | 246.77$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 217$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 19c | 206.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…94f9backed Yes | 49c | 203.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa144…963bbacked Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 61c | 186.49$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.72 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 76c | 184.94$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 7c | 181$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 6c | 178.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 31c | 169.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 167$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 61c | 166.27$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…acf6backed Yes | 10c | 161.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…189dbacked Yes | 13c | 152.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 76c | 149.47$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 38c | 146.85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…41f8backed Yes | 27c | 144.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 13c | 143.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 16c | 140.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 75c | 133.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 73c | 125.1$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.13 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…1936backed No | 75c | 117.88$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 43c | 111.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 11c | 109.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 49c | 105.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 30c | 103.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 47c | 102.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…b57abacked Yes | 50c | 102.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 75c | 98.24$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 66c | 95.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b0…dc83backed Yes | 11c | 93.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 21c | 90.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.21 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 72c | 82.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebf…a01dbacked No | 75c | 81.89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed Yes | 37c | 81.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…2456backed Yes | 80c | 75.7$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f40…2cfabacked No | 75c | 74.1$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 19c | 73.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 21c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0381backed Yes | 17c | 66.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab3…0589backed Yes | 48c | 64.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…9325backed Yes | 72c | 60.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…f0ddbacked Yes | 71c | 57.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef93…388fbacked No | 75c | 54.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 69c | 54.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 64c | 52.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 56c | 50.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3b…8a55backed Yes | 78c | 49.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 23c | 47.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.