Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57b8eb8c304f586f16b6e38499ed6f5a8be33a58dba5334627709029e0f6a2ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 3c | 5,002$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.64 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 1c | 4,472$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 13c | 3,250$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.62 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 1c | 2,031$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 16c | 1,977$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.55 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 1,364$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,230$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 26c | 1,218$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.7 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed Yes | 36c | 849.98$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.49 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 756.95$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 729.5$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.82 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce64…8c07backed Yes | 38c | 715.69$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 32c | 693.09$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.97 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 13c | 692.95$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.73 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 19c | 547.69$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.74 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 541.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 464$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.45 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 15c | 458.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 363.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62ef…f1dcbacked Yes | 35c | 353.59$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.64 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 16c | 346.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…cc26backed Yes | 24c | 333.68$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 18c | 318.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 305.91$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.37 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 287.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 263.43$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.32 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 65c | 260.44$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.49 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d1…ae17backed Yes | 45c | 221.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 10c | 217.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 26c | 203.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 68c | 191.75$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 13c | 182.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 69c | 164.69$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 62c | 162.16$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 29c | 157.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 157.34$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 150.17$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 17c | 147$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 61c | 136.5$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 15c | 135.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 132.26$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x259f…1bf7backed Yes | 39c | 129.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 119.28$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 27c | 116.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 63c | 109.89$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 21c | 105.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac9d…4f61backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f9…ed8abacked Yes | 41c | 92.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 58c | 87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 77.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 65c | 75.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…b57abacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…94f9backed Yes | 36c | 69.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 78c | 65.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 74c | 63.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…1936backed Yes | 32c | 62.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 29c | 61.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 80c | 57.92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…3134backed Yes | 38c | 57.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…4db6backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 23c | 53.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 53.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 35c | 53.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be6…66ffbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e90…2005backed Yes | 22c | 47.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 26c | 44.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 60c | 41.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 66c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed Yes | 32c | 39.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b03…4343backed Yes | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dad…147cbacked No | 74c | 27.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 36 | 77.8%28 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 45c | 27.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 25.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 59c | 24.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 20.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…ec29backed No | 54c | 19.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 66c | 17.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.