Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4232df6c7a73a49af29d5b8da3c115d1926e2e9039ea0283b4bd1e359daa9ba9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 1c | 4,424$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 1c | 2,064$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 75c | 1,701$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.29 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…cc26backed Yes | 30c | 1,200$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.79 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 11c | 1,118$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.28 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 3c | 928.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 751.38$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 22c | 732.63$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.42 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 729.5$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 28c | 723.15$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.32 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a3…68efbacked Yes | 30c | 544.42$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ef…f1dcbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 26c | 499.81$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.64 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 24c | 454.24$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.61 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 434.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 16c | 414.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 6c | 406.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 68c | 399.31$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.24 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 370.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x630e…81f2backed Yes | 13c | 367.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 4c | 356.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 11c | 322.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 28c | 315.07$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.54 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 13c | 314.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 17c | 250.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 23c | 240.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815b…a1c7backed Yes | 9c | 228.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 75c | 208.73$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 8c | 206.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb354…8749backed Yes | 27c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 24c | 170.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 161.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 158$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…441fbacked Yes | 27c | 150.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 75c | 142.94$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 137.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 132.26$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 71c | 128.65$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 17c | 128$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 119.28$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 34c | 116.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 104$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 23c | 103$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 31c | 100.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 24c | 100.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac9d…4f61backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 98.24$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 69c | 95.73$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 93.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 92.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 17c | 86.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed Yes | 31c | 79.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 76.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…b57abacked Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 70.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 29c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f9…ed8abacked Yes | 34c | 63.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed Yes | 21c | 59.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 51.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 42.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed Yes | 33c | 42.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 64c | 41.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 76c | 32.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf39…b050backed No | 70c | 32.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b03…4343backed Yes | 35c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5e…4c95backed No | 77c | 29.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked No | 72c | 28.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 79c | 27.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 78c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 78c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 78c | 19.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 76c | 17.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…6cefbacked No | 76c | 15.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5750…955abacked No | 68c | 14.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.