IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c435e3ac0bbdfbc3f3ab1ef420599c499f2d96ef3331bd6af2db13295ac2334
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 6,042$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,531.34 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 15c | 3,384$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.59 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…7d14backed Yes | 60c | 2,519$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 69c | 2,068$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.57 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed Yes | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…980cbacked Yes | 65c | 1,807$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 22c | 1,781$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.78 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 1,660$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd9…befcbacked No | 4c | 1,594$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 65c | 1,542$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8730…5a13backed Yes | 68c | 1,472$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad4e…12f1backed Yes | 69c | 1,428$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 25c | 1,277$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.45 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 15c | 1,214$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.38 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 1,199$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 32c | 938.94$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.17 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 41c | 925.75$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 33c | 925.61$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.73 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 20c | 843.05$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.54 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 35c | 838$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.51 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 789.67$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.84 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662d…7582backed Yes | 59c | 781.66$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.76 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 36c | 759$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.99 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9630…b278backed Yes | 62c | 706.25$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 67c | 652.72$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.89 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 5c | 624.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7f…0092backed No | 33c | 557.12$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 72c | 517.49$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.44 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes | 59c | 507.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 59c | 500$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacea…8b97backed Yes | 57c | 499.99$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…86cfbacked Yes | 59c | 499.99$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 28c | 476.02$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.31 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ed…d18ebacked Yes | 63c | 464.99$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98b…6086backed Yes | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 35c | 397$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.37 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 33c | 389.41$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e55…07acbacked Yes | 77c | 389.03$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 36c | 385.44$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.76 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd06a…dfd2backed Yes | 61c | 384.55$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked No | 33c | 333.64$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…077ebacked Yes | 65c | 325.5$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b75…c585backed Yes | 68c | 323.25$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6007…1788backed Yes | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…0095backed Yes | 73c | 321.4$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 32c | 321.38$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…4e07backed Yes | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…8d79backed Yes | 69c | 258.68$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x195d…0a8bbacked Yes | 61c | 247.58$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…8a3ebacked Yes | 69c | 241.54$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 240.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2197…ac4bbacked Yes | 69c | 214.69$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 29c | 214.32$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 21c | 206.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 34c | 201.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919a…7e99backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…450ebacked Yes | 76c | 200$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01b8…82c1backed No | 37c | 199.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 28c | 195.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…9411backed Yes | 65c | 189.65$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.88 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 33c | 181.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 67c | 180.02$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…6660backed No | 34c | 176.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42c…51adbacked Yes | 60c | 168$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c1…384ebacked Yes | 60c | 167.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 66c | 165.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ed…0ce8backed No | 32c | 165.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d7…261bbacked Yes | 71c | 152.16$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f32…7b50backed Yes | 67c | 148.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 144.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5646…50c4backed Yes | 66c | 142.58$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…a21fbacked Yes | 62c | 137.56$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e6…8261backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 28c | 133.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 50c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a58…0b2cbacked Yes | 69c | 115.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc594…e5c5backed No | 35c | 105.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 104.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe56a…6d6dbacked No | 10c | 102$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7543…f11dbacked Yes | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ad…719fbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac04…0788backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c1…ffabbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…d15bbacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9560…ef41backed Yes | 61c | 98.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd939…5314backed Yes | 60c | 96.48$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 17c | 93.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb65…709cbacked Yes | 68c | 86.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f4…90a2backed Yes | 72c | 84.43$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 33c | 82.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8a…870cbacked Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 37c | 81.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f81…86efbacked Yes | 61c | 80.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…4d05backed Yes | 69c | 76.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53d1…ec5bbacked Yes | 66c | 74.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…1e88backed Yes | 50c | 74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x872b…a9c3backed Yes | 73c | 67.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?this page
- Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at least $250?No won
- Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?No won
- Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?No won
- Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less than $100?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.