IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less than $100?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55bf83ea372f1b6bdbb6d53b7e8435f821f2fe3dff2b173812cd6a5eeb7c1b8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b87…4fb6backed Yes | 2c | 4,591$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…08b0backed Yes | 5c | 3,666$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e7…06c1backed Yes | 6c | 2,820$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…8d79backed Yes | 3c | 2,603$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,068$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 1,033$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3971…0a8cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,013$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7f…0092backed Yes | 3c | 714.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…2440backed Yes | 5c | 711.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb91…c159backed Yes | 2c | 664.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f32…7b50backed Yes | 7c | 442.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…c336backed Yes | 9c | 421.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16be…008dbacked Yes | 3c | 291.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 6c | 169.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeced…c598backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.9wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less than $100?this page
- Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at least $250?No won
- Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?No won
- Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?Yes won
- Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.