IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x283768eb44603279a1359a087fc4fd32c565d572d0f3be2b088c62047943fb95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafcc…fb70backed Yes | 15c | 13,748$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed Yes | 27c | 6,239$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 5,518$4,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.36 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes | 8c | 2,419$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b87…4fb6backed Yes | 5c | 2,298$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8188…0667backed Yes | 4c | 1,744$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…812cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,727$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.56 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -66%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8980…011abacked Yes | 9c | 1,677$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,559$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.9 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…08b0backed Yes | 33c | 1,507$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 1,409$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.36 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260c…7147backed Yes | 27c | 1,405$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa73…0498backed Yes | 14c | 1,385$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,198$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,100$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.28 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes | 17c | 1,071$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 74c | 1,021$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.82 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…5a8dbacked No | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 13c | 999.97$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.71 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 72c | 911.56$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.84 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 26c | 904.12$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.07 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9630…b278backed Yes | 22c | 828.21$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84e…2d9bbacked Yes | 36c | 825.53$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 20c | 807.81$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…0bffbacked Yes | 31c | 799.99$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 753.15$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.69 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…c9ddbacked Yes | 15c | 715.42$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315b…d386backed Yes | 25c | 697.34$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 13c | 656.11$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b7…cc0ebacked Yes | 2c | 639.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 558.36$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.52 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9bb…0854backed Yes | 36c | 552.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…441fbacked Yes | 15c | 543.2$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 11c | 530.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked No | 46c | 521$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.34 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +5.7wins | +0.52per pick | 39cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 9c | 501$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…e4ddbacked Yes | 19c | 500.7$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…90b5backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…8d79backed Yes | 23c | 497.39$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…c336backed Yes | 20c | 492$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…7bd2backed Yes | 21c | 480.55$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 463.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…fc51backed Yes | 26c | 455.22$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x195d…0a8bbacked Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a77…9ef1backed Yes | 16c | 422.76$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…d985backed Yes | 36c | 413.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c48…f6f6backed Yes | 18c | 403.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32bc…1dabbacked Yes | 8c | 393$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 389.41$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e7…06c1backed Yes | 10c | 385.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f32…7b50backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 15c | 383.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68fa…b106backed Yes | 27c | 374.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 350$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.15 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1d…d05ebacked Yes | 17c | 288.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 8c | 275.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 73c | 270$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63cc…e641backed Yes | 23c | 266.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 73c | 265$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.55 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b96…0df2backed Yes | 8c | 253.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 242.7$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b3…be48backed Yes | 13c | 229.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 21c | 220.73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 220.31$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b8…82c1backed Yes | 33c | 219.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x601b…4be0backed Yes | 21c | 215.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…e776backed Yes | 36c | 209.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…450ebacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa839…eaedbacked Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 14c | 184.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd939…5314backed Yes | 34c | 178.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…e696backed Yes | 35c | 170.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 13c | 169$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 151.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa5…8597backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…494bbacked Yes | 28c | 149.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 9c | 149$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a11…52bbbacked Yes | 32c | 148.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf77c…e4f5backed Yes | 33c | 147.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06a…dfd2backed Yes | 29c | 144.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 14c | 135$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 13c | 134.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 80c | 133.09$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 24c | 127$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf014…a7cdbacked Yes | 14c | 126.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4368…ce70backed Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 23c | 122.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1a…c7b1backed Yes | 28c | 118.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be6…821ebacked Yes | 34c | 118.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63bd…aff2backed Yes | 24c | 113.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8163…9bd0backed Yes | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7217…8b49backed Yes | 23c | 108.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked Yes | 9c | 107.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 75c | 93.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 29c | 93.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?this page
- Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at least $250?No won
- Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?Yes won
- Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?No won
- Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less than $100?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.