IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba1d0ba27c4c257db10af44916f33a2cacd4ca59037db22494e884a038e2b3c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25b7…cc0ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…db91backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 7,038$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.9 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…36b0backed Yes | 21c | 6,155$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…c83dbacked Yes | 4c | 4,660$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 4c | 4,628$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.17 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed Yes | 12c | 3,615$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…8ad7backed Yes | 10c | 2,603$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2deb…1cdebacked Yes | 4c | 2,589$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 9c | 1,522$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.71 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x982a…6851backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Yes | 21c | 938.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8489…0268backed Yes | 11c | 927.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb210…11bcbacked Yes | 21c | 913.39$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa43e…ab27backed Yes | 3c | 895.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…4d05backed Yes | 10c | 883.3$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3971…0a8cbacked Yes | 12c | 850.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…b686backed Yes | 14c | 847.36$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb892…6f98backed Yes | 26c | 833.16$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a77…9ef1backed Yes | 18c | 794.34$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe888…388dbacked Yes | 11c | 768.08$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes | 13c | 753.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aab…94e2backed Yes | 27c | 724.7$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ed…d18ebacked Yes | 23c | 570.46$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…c336backed Yes | 18c | 564.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2d…5bb4backed Yes | 18c | 560.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x632c…06cbbacked Yes | 2c | 544.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 539.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa839…eaedbacked Yes | 18c | 525.92$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 5c | 507.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…86cfbacked Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…a880backed Yes | 2c | 418.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…be02backed Yes | 11c | 409.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f32…7b50backed Yes | 8c | 395.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 364.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…601fbacked Yes | 14c | 353.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 349.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 311$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…9152backed Yes | 12c | 252.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 238.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 8c | 238.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…e838backed Yes | 7c | 216.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 5c | 209.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 207.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…32fbbacked Yes | 20c | 203.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…450ebacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2b…7f65backed Yes | 16c | 185.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed Yes | 12c | 174.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bbb…42f2backed Yes | 20c | 151.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…6043backed Yes | 21c | 149.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd309…d769backed Yes | 8c | 144.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d2…0495backed Yes | 19c | 132.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaed6…c4a8backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7f…0092backed Yes | 15c | 129.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…bf5fbacked Yes | 16c | 126.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…3164backed Yes | 16c | 121.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea6…0b20backed Yes | 9c | 115$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…b18cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7217…8b49backed Yes | 26c | 96.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc159…18bcbacked Yes | 22c | 91.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf179…fd27backed Yes | 24c | 84.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944d…4572backed Yes | 17c | 72.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb97f…3a2bbacked Yes | 20c | 71.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b38…93adbacked Yes | 17c | 69.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06a…dfd2backed Yes | 16c | 66.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa405…6734backed Yes | 17c | 66.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c0…2f6dbacked Yes | 24c | 62.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…2440backed Yes | 27c | 55.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…4af7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?this page
- Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at least $250?No won
- Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?No won
- Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?Yes won
- Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less than $100?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.