IPO · resolved market
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c91df240285fe87ac06d52ff5257681bafed60f36093a52c72d15b5732d5ed8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4131…d591backed Yes | 6c | 4,425$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.78 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 14c | 2,523$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.61 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 49c | 2,112$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.77 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,700$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 624.46$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.78 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 64c | 475.84$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…4791backed Yes | 3c | 386.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 30c | 262.38$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…801bbacked Yes | 5c | 253.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c0c5backed Yes | 52c | 200.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 27c | 166.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cc…feb0backed Yes | 76c | 145.54$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 128$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 47c | 123.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 38c | 117.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 39c | 109.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…b23ebacked No | 54c | 100.36$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecf…20d7backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d4…7849backed Yes | 50c | 99.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…7d34backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 40c | 96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…ebe5backed No | 46c | 92.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed No | 70c | 88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 47c | 75.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 54c | 73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…5868backed No | 20c | 69.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +734.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 54c | 67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80b…b047backed No | 48c | 64.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 64.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 44c | 62.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e27…1c22backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 72c | 58.49$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 50c | 56.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c8…6a7dbacked Yes | 41c | 56.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 36c | 53.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7c71…9338backed No | 52c | 50.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf5…e344backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…fcffbacked Yes | 45c | 47.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0025…6ca8backed Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fe…699dbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa425…1d81backed No | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…09d5backed No | 57c | 39.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x054f…2e20backed No | 60c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked No | 66c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…a470backed No | 60c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x632c…06cbbacked Yes | 56c | 26.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd584…2187backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73c1…28f3backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed Yes | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc40c…5577backed No | 59c | 20.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…d0e7backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b8…ec39backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0630…3fcdbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…af39backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…cf27backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…80dcbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked No | 59c | 18.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?this page
- Will Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Grimes be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Kimbal Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Luke Nosek be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Steve Jurvetson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.