IPO · resolved market
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bd5ff4cc8e4ee4cc3e6c87f62f8990d3a22c01743c4eb3dfcc2d75e9e7902f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4131…d591backed Yes | 3c | 2,584$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 39c | 1,260$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.26 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 4c | 1,148$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 5c | 699.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…d4f2backed Yes | 4c | 509.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 49c | 456.96$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.79 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 53c | 243$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.21 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 6c | 171.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 62c | 160$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 25c | 157.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 52c | 141.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 8c | 124$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 56c | 119.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.59 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 95.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 59c | 81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 55c | 64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x632c…06cbbacked Yes | 20c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf814…5f09backed Yes | 39c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 29c | 59.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…b81fbacked Yes | 55c | 56.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…7a91backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x579c…fe39backed No | 60c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 59c | 41.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked Yes | 40c | 39.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73c1…28f3backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 32 | 93.8%30 W · 2 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 73cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f5…4f4dbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…cf27backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c93…39afbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…31dbbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?this page
- Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Grimes be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will Kimbal Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Luke Nosek be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Steve Jurvetson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.